The most interesting details about the hostages and ceasefire that Israeli officials and Hamas agreed to on Wednesday are independent of the terms, which are very similar to what has been on the table for months, or so that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is effectively accepting the continued rule of Hamas in the Gaza Strip after repeatedly vowing not to.
This is how the agreement was secured: by Steven Witkoff, a billionaire friend of Donald Trump and envoy from the Middle East, in his meeting on Saturday morning with the prime minister. “The envoy explained to his host in no uncertain terms that Trump expected him to accept a deal,” Haaretz military analyst Amos Harel said on Tuesday. “What Netanyahu called a life and death issue,” he added, “suddenly disappeared.”
Harel called it the “Trump effect.” What is this? In part, it is the accumulation of political capital that all elected presidents have before taking office and spending (or being spent); in part it’s that Trump is behaving as if he’s already president. But most of it is fear and the desire to please Trump, especially those who seek his favor.
The result, in the case of hostages, is a less-than-welcome diplomatic standoff: Thanks in large part to Trump, the deal demanded by the Israeli left and rejected by the right is about to go into effect. The Biden administration’s year-long diplomacy over his political animosity is finally paying off. Far-right parties that are part of Netanyahu’s coalition could destabilize the government. And Netanyahu is far more willing to kneel in Washington than he was when the Democrats were in the White House.
In a hostage deal, Israel’s price will be heavy in many ways. For every Israeli hostage released by Hamas, Israel will release several Palestinian prisoners, many of whom have Israeli blood on their hands. It was through one such release that Yahya Sinwar, the mastermind behind the October 7 massacre, was freed. The gradual nature of the deal — which begins with the release of 33 hostages, most of whom are alive but some are believed to be dead — will leave an unknown number, raise their political profile and give Hamas freedom. to remove additional consent.
More importantly, if Israel withdraws from the Philadelphi Corridor, the area that separates Gaza from Egypt, Hamas may have a chance to regroup, possibly resuming the October 7 and the sequel, even if it isn’t. it is inevitable.
This is not to say that the deal is bad for Israel’s national interests — let alone a blessing for the returning hostages, their families, and the people who believe that rescuing the captives is a supreme moral duty. .
Unlike in May, when President Biden first announced this deal (or early September, when I opposed it), Israel now finds itself in a much stronger strategic position. The Iranian-led “Axis of Resistance”, of which Hamas was a member, was destroyed in Beirut, overthrown in Damascus, crushed in Gaza and severely punctured in Tehran itself. No matter how many Palestinian prisoners are released, no one in Hamas can seriously say that the gamble of October 7 has rewarded them with anything but disaster. Israel is also less afraid, with Trump as president, of the threat of international arms embargo or legal sanctions: Be aware that any danger of arresting Netanyahu there will quickly disappear of European capitals.
A more difficult issue for the Israeli right is what Trump might want them to accept. The president-elect clearly wants a formal Israeli-Saudi deal as the cornerstone of the Abraham Accords he is working on in 2020. For that to happen, the Saudis will demand a map of the Palestinian nation. Trump may also want to use Iran’s current weakness to negotiate a second nuclear deal, while what Netanyahu really wants is American help in striking Israeli targets. nuclear Iran, possibly in the coming weeks or months.
Where wisdom lies on both sides depends mostly on the details. (I’m almost in favor of a realistic deal with Saudi Arabia and almost certainly against any deal with Tehran.) But the bottom line is this: It’s going to destroy traditional foreign policy assumptions. Trump, left or right. Liberals who think Trump’s second term could be in for a surprise. Conservatives who hope this will get tough on our enemies may be disappointed.
Donald Trump may have the spirit of a bully, but he also has the nature of a deal-maker – and he wants to win accolades, including the Nobel Peace Prize that he believes he was denied because of the Abrahamic Accords. Whatever the next four years in power bring, it will not be compatible with any ideological type. Somewhere, the spirit of Richard Milhous Nixon is smiling.
