Since Donald Trump won the presidential election in November, there has been much talk about what his second term in the White House might look like for the UK. There’s no denying that Trump — who is poised to take over from President Biden when he is officially inaugurated on January 20, 2025 — has big plans for his second presidential run. But what does this mean for the UK?
4 ways UK-US relations could change with Trump’s second term
Ukrainian conflict
With Donald Trump’s return to the White House, many people have turned their attention to the Ukraine-Russia conflict. During his campaign and bid for president, Trump promised to end the war, with a plan to broker a deal between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin. However, very little information has been released since then about the details of those plans, and many see them as an ambiguous, vague promise to his supporters. However, there are concerns about what Trump’s idea of ending the war might look like, with many believing it could involve appeasing Russia at the expense of Ukraine.
By not clarifying the terms of his potential policy, Trump has alarmed many European leaders, including those in the United Kingdom. Kiev, along with NATO allies, is wary of the possibility that Trump will withdraw funding and support to Ukraine. The USA was the largest donor so far, providing 75.1 billion euros, significantly more than the 13.1 billion euros donated by Great Britain. If Trump does cut funding, the United Kingdom and the European Union could bear a much larger share of the financial burden. Given the increasing economic pressure on the UK and Europe, this will not be an easy burden to bear.
Recently, Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron discussed urging President Biden, in the final months of his presidency, to authorize the use of Storm Shadow missiles for Ukraine. This suggests there is an urgency to implement the plans before Trump is officially sworn in.
Relations with NATO
During Trump’s first term as president, his relationship with NATO was a hot topic. Known for his threats to withdraw the US from the alliance if other countries do not meet the 2.5% defense target of GDP, there is now talk of raising his target to 3%. Support for Ukraine is closely linked to NATO unity, and a potential disintegration of the alliance would weaken the defense pact and further threaten Ukraine’s security.
The appointment of Pete Hegseth, a former Fox News anchor, as Secretary of Defense has raised further concerns. Hegseth was critical of NATO, believing it to be an ineffective organization that relied too much on US support. With many assuming that Trump will replace Hegseth with Mike Pompeo, a strong defender of Ukraine, this could be a big change from what was expected.
For the UK, Trump’s return to the White House has put more emphasis on defense spending.
Starmer has previously committed to a defense target of 2.5% of GDP, but pressure to meet this target could intensify, although Starmer did not clarify if or when this would happen. If the US withdraws support, the UK’s defense commitments could be tested and possibly reassessed to ensure the budget is sufficiently extended.
The UK economy
Trump’s second term in the White House is likely to have an impact on the UK economy, especially when it comes to imposing tariffs on imported goods. As the US is one of the UK’s largest single export markets, the prospect of tariff increases would be highly damaging. It is thought that this rate could be increased to 10% for all good imports and a 60% rate for China. Experts from the National Institute for Social and Economic Research believe this could reduce UK GDP growth by 0.7%.
They hope that some countries will be able to avoid Trump’s tariff increase, but that is not guaranteed. However, with Trump, any trade deal would likely come with concessions. If that’s the case, Starmer would need to strike a balance between doing what’s best for the UK economy without handing too much to the US.
Trump’s ‘America First’ Approach to Leadership
Trump has an ‘America First’ approach to leadership, something that will mark a major shift in relations with the UK, especially when it comes to national security. Trump’s agenda is largely driven by what’s best for the US—even if that means negatively impacting long-standing alliances with NATO—with little thought to international norms or relationships.
For the UK, this could affect security cooperation and intelligence sharing, particularly if the US becomes a less reliable part of the Five Eyes – the intelligence alliance between the UK, US, Canada, Australia and New Zealand – and NATO. For the UK, this means adapting to a more cautious and strategic approach in dealing with the US, as there is no telling how an ‘America first’ approach will work alongside relations with other nations, particularly if what is in the best interests of the US not Disagree with the opinions of allies, such as the United Kingdom. There is a possibility that the Starmer government will have to take a more independent approach to national security, focusing on relations with allies other than the US.
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