Armchair Manager: What do the Blue Jays have left for Game 4?

LOS ANGELES — After pulling nearly every lever and turning every dial he could in Monday night’s Game 3 World Series classic, Blue Jays manager John Schneider and his staff have precious little time to regroup, assess the damage and figure out what’s left for Game 4.

Does George Springer exist? Who can give you how much from the bullpen? How do you mitigate the aftershocks of playing a late-night doubleheader while strategizing the urgency required for a critical game starting just 17 hours later?

There are many unknowns. But here are some of the best predictions for Tuesday night. First pitch is set for 8pm ET / 5pm PT on Sportsnet and Sportsnet+.

Bichette – DH
Lux – LF
Guerrero Jr. – 1 b
Kirk – C
Warsaw – CF
Clement – 3 b
Barger – RF
Connor-Felfa – 2 b
Jimenez – SS

Tyler Hanneman
Three France
George Springer
Davis Schneider
Miles Strauss

Springer’s availability is a big question mark. The Blue Jays described the injury that forced him from Game 3 as “right side discomfort” and he went in for an MRI late Monday night. This is all we know. It is possible that he is afraid of a bullet. It’s also possible that Joey Loperfido will replace him on the first pitch.

Springer has played a lot this season, but any kind of injury to the hitter’s midsection can be debilitating for players who rely on explosive rotational motion. So we’ll assume he’s out and move forward with Bechette atop the lineup as the designated hitter.

The original plan was likely to bench Bechter in Game 4 and prevent him from starting at second base on three consecutive days. But Springer vacating the DH spot opens up a compromise in which Bechette can spend most of the game off his feet, making sure he doesn’t put too much pressure on his knees.

If Springer remains on the roster, the question becomes whether he’s capable of pinch-hitting, possibly against a left-handed reliever for Luke or Barger. Ohtani hasn’t gone past six innings or 100 pitches since his return earlier this season, so you know there will be opportunities late in the game. If Springer is completely unavailable, that would limit Schneider’s flexibility, which goes against how the Blue Jays’ roster is constructed.

Speaking of the limitations of Ohtani’s workload, you’d think the Blue Jays’ best bet would be to start with Patience, work him out, and try to run his pitch count. The man played all 18 innings of a six-hour, 39-minute baseball game the night before and reached base nine times. How willing is he to repeat his mechanics for six innings?

But Ohtani is not sensitive to the zone. He throws plenty of pitches at the plate — his season-long zone rate is 52.4 percent — especially early in plate appearances. That means Blue Jays hitters are more likely to see Ohtani’s fastball in 0-0 and 0-1 counts when he strikes out more than 40 percent of the time. And he’s expected to throw plenty of strikes early in Game 4 against tired Blue Jays hitters. So, if you want to do any damage against him, being aggressive in the first two innings might be the best bet.

But if you let Ohtani keep putting you in the impossible predicament of defending against seven separate pitches ranging from 72 to 102 mph, there aren’t that many who are throwing three different break balls with wave rates north of 40 percent. So, if the Blue Jays can’t get Ohtani soon, it could be a tough night.

It’s been an uneven postseason for Bieber, who wasn’t hot in his divisional series opener at Yankee Stadium, gave the Blue Jays six solid innings against the Mariners a week later, and just as many in the Game 7 rematch with Seattle while pitching on regular rest.

Bieber is in the zone on just 41 percent of his 7 pitches, his lowest rate since his first start after Tommy John surgery. He also allowed four hits to his slider, one of the best in the postseason on a per-pitch basis — a 61.1 percent whiff rate; .054 xBA – entering the night.

Those two factors — hitting and breaking ball effectiveness — will be particularly influential in how long Bieber goes against the Dodgers. If he’s consistently finding and getting whiffs or weak contact with his seconds, he could earn himself a third trip through the Dodgers lineup. But if his stuff and command look like they did last time out against Seattle, it would make strategic sense to limit Bieber to 18 hitters.

If you’re Schneider, you’re no doubt praying for the former rather than the latter, considering how much was asked of the bullpen in Game 3. And the availability of relief — or lack thereof — could play a role in how Bieber will need to locate the volatile Schneider so that he doesn’t get him in his outfield. But you’re still dealing with a guy who just came back from Tommy John surgery two months ago. Therefore, Bieber is not expected to throw 110 pitches, regardless of how he is pitching.

How should the Blue Jays adjust their bullpen?

On Sunday’s off day, Schneider said every reliever in his bullpen could pitch in all three games at Dodger Stadium. But Monday’s game was effectively two. Therefore, the calculation has changed.

Here are the pitch counts of the nine pitchers who appeared in this Game 3 epic:

Max Scherzer – 79
Eric Lauer – 68
Jeff Hoffman – 33
Brendan Little – 29
Sarathony Dominguez – 27
Louis Worland – 20
Braden Fisher – 19
Mason Fluharty – 14
Chris Best – 8

Let’s get a few simple ones first – Bassitt, Fisher and Fluharty are available. It’s worth thinking about how the prepared bassist — pitching in relief after the first premature pandemic — is throwing back days. He’s never done it in his big league career, but Schneider may have to find that the situation warrants it, because Bast is nothing short of an unexpected step into the role.

Another factor to consider is how often Fluharty faces off. The Dodgers superstar has now hit Fluharty twice in the series and doubled off him in Game 3. Letting a hitter give up three looks to a reliever with close success is like lighting a cigarette in a fireworks factory.

But the alternatives are not clear. There’s no way Eric Lauer is pitching Tuesday — or Wednesday, or possibly even Friday — after digging deep to throw 68 pitches in Game 3. Brandon Little is a solid yellow on the availability card after throwing 29 himself, including a four-pitch walk to Ohtani in the 17th. And Ohtani homered off Dominguez in Game 3.

Finally, if anyone has to face Ohtani in his third outing ahead of Hoffman in the eighth or ninth, Chris Bast, come on down. Maybe the veteran’s deep swing moves in the middle innings are antithetical to a hitter we’ve never seen. And if Bast can get past Ohtani in Game 4, his reward might be facing him again in Game 5.

Meanwhile, a note on Dominguez. His 27 pitches were the most he’s thrown since June, and he’s only pitched six times on back-to-back days this year. He’ll definitely be available in some capacity — it’s Game 4 of the World Series. But it’s worth considering that of those 27 pitches, the Dodgers only hit 10, putting three in play and striking out once. Do they have anything on Dominguez? Or was their attitude towards him just so good? In any case, it should be stopped when considering his next deployment.

Hoffman had a heavy workload of 33 pitches in Game 3. That ties his regular-season high and is just two shy of the postseason high he set in Game 6 of the ALCS. Still, Hoffman was back on the mound the night following that outing, throwing 17 pitches in Game 7. So, we know he’s capable. And his average fastball velocity didn’t suffer, as he sat at 95 in both outings.

Considering the importance of Game 4, Schneider would have to be willing to go back to Hoffman if it would increase his team’s chances of sealing a much-needed win. That thing will be left in great flux for Game 5, but you can figure it out when you get there. And getting there 2-2, rather than 3-1 down, is a must.

Thankfully, there’s never any question about Warland being presented as evidence of repeated influence. A byproduct of his frequent use is Dodgers hitters inevitably seeing him over and over again. But he has enough deep arms to vary his lineups and the hitters he’s seen twice so far — Enrique Hernandez and Tommy Adams — aren’t the ones you’d worry about most in this lineup.