Close the deal on on-brand and new territory for the Blue Jays

TORONTO — For the Toronto Blue Jays, the pending Dylann Cease deal is both extremely on-brand and a meaningful departure from the past.

It’s on brand because the Blue Jays crave durable starting pitchers, and have consistently made multi-year deals for top free agent pitchers from Hyun Jin Ryu and Yusei Kikuchi to Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt. And while the occasional deal backfires, the Blue Jays have generally shopped well here, finding some key arms for reasonable prices.

Another reason is the seven-year, $210 million dollar on-brand: It can be predictable. At GM meetings in Las Vegas, sources close to the team said the top priority was adding a starting pitcher, given the impending departures of Bassett and Max Scherzer. A few weeks later, Seaz is set to sign the largest commitment a Blue Jays pitcher has ever received.

He broke Gasman’s five-year, $110-million deal by $100 million, giving the Blue Jays the two pitchers with the most strikeouts this decade (Gasman’s 1,150 topping Gasman’s 1,099 since 2020). Of course, the Blue Jays are paying Seaz for what comes next, not for what he’s already done.

Despite the 4.55 ERA he posted in 2025, there are plenty of reasons to believe better results are ahead next year. With a lifetime ERA of 3.88 and at least 3.4 fWAR in each of the last five seasons, there is a long track record of success. Now 29 with a fastball that averages 97.1 mph, he is very much in his prime.

Plus, Seaz’s worst seasons have been marred by poor defensive work. The Padres allowed a .323 batting average on balls in play with Cease pitching this past season, above the MLB average of 291. But while the San Diego defense did him no favors, the Blue Jays have a strong defensive team that should better support Seaz in 2026.

He’s not a perfect pitcher — lefties hold their own against pitchers and his barrel rates are incredibly high — but he’s still someone you’d happily turn the ball over to in a playoff game, and that ERA is likely coming down in 2026.

Now, it’s all brand for the Blue Jays, as is doing business with agent Scott Boras, who also represented Ryo and Kakuchi. What’s different about this deal is its timing and what it says about Toronto as a free agent destination.

In terms of timing, a contract with Boras of November 26 is telling. Baseball’s most prominent agent doesn’t advise clients to sign early unless they’re getting what they want, if not more. The Blue Jays are paying full price here — but coming off a memorable World Series run, they’re not limited to trade purchases. Clearly, they are comfortable paying retail for a premium arm like Seas.

In recent years, the Blue Jays have often chosen to be patient, sticking to their prices even if it means waiting until January to complete their shopping spree. The early strike is remarkable, though that doesn’t mean a new, carefree version of Ross Atkins is emerging as a maverick GM.

Fun though that plot twist might be, a decade of conclusive data suggests otherwise. History suggests that the Blue Jays will continue that way and at least some of the team’s purchases will still be completed in the new year. But the Blue Jays clearly liked Seaz enough that $210 million felt like a good deal, and they jumped.

Far from being used up, the Blue Jays are having possibly the most productive offseason of any MLB team, adding Shane Bieber and Seaz to bolster a rotation that already includes Gausman, Trey Yesavage and Jose Berrios. Now that Bieber and Saez have both chosen Toronto and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is locked in long term, the Blue Jays are the clear contenders for 2026 and the pressure is on to catch up to the rest of the AL East.

From here, recruiting players should be as simple as it has been in decades. Because even though the Blue Jays were coming off an 88-loss season a year ago and felt sluggish in their free agent pitching, that’s no longer the case. Now, the recruiting pitch is self-explanatory. The Blue Jays were in the World Series earlier this month and have since retained one full arm and added another.

Even before those deals, Beau Bechet wanted to come back, so that’s why it’s still a deal and he’ll be in contact with the Blue Jays. Outside of Bechette, the Blue Jays are also well-positioned to provide the pitching they need. That includes potentially a late-innings arm (they watched Wrestle Iglesias without pitching and were on full mats before he landed with the Cubs) and ideally a swing arm that can start if needed.

In recent years, when Atkins was busy with free agents only to see them sign elsewhere, some in the industry believed the Blue Jays were being used to inflate prices. People familiar with the negotiations said no, the Blue Jays also walked away from the deals, blocking some popular players who wanted to come to Toronto.

But after close calls from Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Rookie Sasaki, the second-place narrative persisted — in fact, it grew louder. Ultimately, the only way to flip that story is to close deals with star players, and ideally by winning as well. Suddenly, the Blue Jays are doing plenty of both.