Did Ukraine kill its own by shooting down a Russian plane? A year later it didn’t say that.

It’s been a year since Moscow accused Kyiv of shooting down a Russian military plane carrying dozens of Ukrainian prisoners of war. Ukraine has opened an investigation, but has yet to release its findings, raising questions about who died and why.

The downing of an IL-76 transport plane in Russia’s Belgorod region, near the border with Ukraine, has sparked a series of scandals at a difficult time for Kyiv, as it sought the help of the West to rebuild the weapons that have been used up.

Russian officials called it a “terrorist act” and called an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council. Ukrainian officials have neither admitted nor denied shooting down the plane, saying they could not confirm that there were Ukrainian prisoners on board. U.S. officials later speculated that the Ukrainian military had used a U.S.-made Patriot missile to shoot it down, thinking the plane was carrying Russian missiles and weapons.

“We have many questions about the situation,” said Sofia Sobolyeva, who believes her father was on the plane, in a recent interview.

With the families of the inmates still waiting for answers, here is what is known about the accident last year.

Conflicting accounts

Russia’s Ministry of Defense said on January 24, 2024 that one of its military vehicles was shot at on its way to Belgorod due to a prisoner exchange. The plane was reportedly carrying 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war and none survived the crash.

Initially, Ukraine asserted its right to target Russian military transport aircraft in the border region, which was the site of the 2022 invasion and was used in subsequent attacks. At the time of the crash, a deadly Russian missile attack was taking place in Kharkiv, across the border in Ukraine, and Kyiv has stressed the need to stop the attacks.

Soon, however, Ukraine’s military intelligence service hinted at the possibility of a catastrophic mistake, not directly admitting that Ukraine had downed the plane but offering clues as to how it might have happened. A Ukrainian official said the IL-76, which usually carried cargo, had been used to deliver ammunition and missiles before, suggesting it was a legitimate target.

The agency acknowledged that the Jan. 24 prisoner swap was planned — but Russia said it did not warn Ukraine that prisoners were being sent to Belgorod airport, as in previous exchanges. Russian officials disputed that account, saying Ukraine’s military had been notified.

The conflicting statements showed the lack of clarity that has become a defining feature of the war. Both sides have been pushing their preferred narratives for nearly three years of fighting, and have been reluctant to announce or concede a setback.

Call for investigation

President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine called on his country’s intelligence agencies to investigate the incident and launch an international investigation into the crash. He accused Russia of “playing with the lives of Ukrainian prisoners, the feelings of their loved ones and the feelings of our society.”

The internal intelligence service of Ukraine opened an investigation into the incident.

Russian authorities said the plane crashed in a snowy field near a town in Korochansky district. No private group was able to visit the crash site; The Red Cross and the United Nations have requested access to Ukraine.

Unverified Russian satellite images and video captured what appeared to be the crash site and debris of a plane in the Russian-defined area, but it was not possible to identify the passengers in the footage.

Ukrainian authorities asked citizens for patience while they investigated Moscow’s claims.

Identification of victims

Prisoner exchanges occurred regularly during the war, even in the midst of heavy fighting. But the Ukrainian authorities usually do not reveal, even to the families, the names of those who will be released before the exchange.

Russian authorities did not identify the victims when they announced it. But the names of the 65 prisoners of war said to be on board were shared on social media by the editor-in-chief of Russian state broadcaster RT,

A few days later, the Ukrainian government agency that monitors prisoners of war confirmed that the names on the list corresponded to those scheduled for exchange on the day of the disaster. But the agency said it had no evidence that the detainees were on the plane, or even dead.

At that time, says Sofia Sobolyeva, her family received a phone call from the soldier asking for a meeting. Ms. Sobolyeva’s father had been in Russian captivity since March 2022 — shortly after the war began — and her name was on the list.

“They gathered us together and explained the situation but they didn’t even answer any questions,” he said. Authorities have promised to conduct a “quick” investigation, he said, and have asked relatives to submit DNA.

Adjournment of proceedings

The case stayed out of the headlines for months. The exchange of corpses in early November was the first sign of a possible break.

The International Committee of the Red Cross confirmed that it was present at the handover on November 8. Russia said the transfer contained the remains of 65 people who died in the IL-76 crash, but this claim could not be independently verified.

“The ICRC was not involved in the identification process,” the agency said this week in response to questions, adding that it was ready to help the authorities with technical support.

Ms. Sobolyeva said that the family of the 65, who set up a WhatsApp group, knew about the transfer and told the Ukrainian authorities that “it takes time for the DNA skills.”

An outstanding question

Ukraine’s prosecutor general and security services did not respond to The New York Times’ questions about the status of the investigation into whether any remains have been found.

But there seems to be little dispute as to who brought down the plane.

Russia’s defense ministry accused the Ukrainian military of firing a missile from the Kharkiv region near Ukraine that hit the plane. U.S. officials later said Ukraine had used a Patriot air defense missile to bring down the plane.

While Ukraine has not officially accepted its role, Ms. Sobolyeva said it is meaningless now.

“Logically, we understand that it was shot by Ukraine,” he said, although “officially we have nothing.

What he’s not sure about is whether the family will get answers to their other questions — how it happened, and why.

She described her father as a kind man with “golden hands” — who could fix anything broken — who loved to garden.

“There was a lot of stress and tears, but I still don’t understand what happened,” said Mrs. Sobolyeva, one evening.

“Now,” he added, “all I have is my black hat, so I’m warmer—both mentally and physically.”