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Call it the “Max Factor”, as you can never count out Red Bull driver Max Verstappen.
The four-time reigning world champion took his seventh win of the season, and second in as many weeks, at the Qatar Grand Prix on Sunday.
It was also Verstappen’s 70th career GP win and his third straight at the Lucille International Circuit.
Verstappen was 104 points adrift of points leader McLaren’s Oscar Pastry following his home race at the Dutch Grand Prix on the last day of August.
Now, Verstappen is just 12 behind McLaren’s Lando Norris, with one race remaining, and his dream of capturing a fifth consecutive title within reach. If Norris had finished ahead of Verstappen on Sunday, the “drive for five” would have ended.
Verstappen finished third on the grid but had the advantage of lining up on the “cleaner” side of the track – even if that meant being right behind pole-sitter Piastri – and was able to swoop for a slower-starting Norris for second place on the first lap before the first corner.
What happened next for Red Bull and Verstappen was nothing short of an early festivity miracle.
Contact between Sauber’s Nico Hulkenberg and Alpine’s Pierre Gasly brought out the safety car on lap seven with debris strewn across the track. While Piastri stayed out, Verstappen pulled into the pits for the first stop of the night.
McLaren, unwilling to make an audible call and appearing to favor one driver over the other, had Norris to stay out and get another place.
As it turned out to be a big mistake all others (minus Haas driver Esteban Ocon and obviously Hulkenberg) all pitted for fresh tires and caught up behind the McLarens before the restart.
Norris asked race engineering director Will Joseph on team radio: “We should have just followed (Verstappen), wouldn’t we? If we knew the car was going ahead?”
Joseph replied: “They have lost all their resilience to the rest of the race.”
Perhaps McLaren was hoping for another yellow flag or a safety car, none of which came as the race settled in, but it was a big mistake that may have cost one of their drivers the championship.
Instead of a slow pit stop under the safety car, the field slowed down, with both McLaren drivers now having to box with the field at high speed.
While Piastri recovered to take second place, Norris missed out on the podium, finishing fourth behind Williams driver (and good friend) Carlos Sainz.
However, it looked like Norris would finish fifth until a late mistake from Cammy Antonelli allowed him to overtake the Mercedes on the final lap. That gave Norris two key points, which you never know, might even decide the championship.
As they enter Abu Dhabi
The F1 season ends next weekend with the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix. Norris could have won in Qatar if he had finished four points ahead of Pastry and one over Verstappen, but instead it would go down to the wire.
Here’s how the standings look right now, with three drivers in the championship chase (again pending post-race disqualifications).
• Norris still leads with 408 points.
• Verstappen’s win helped him finish second in the standings with 396 points (12 back of Norris).
• Piastri comes in third with 392 points (16 behind Norris).
Shall we reveal the dream scene? Should either of them finish level in the standings after Abu Dhabi, the first tie-breaker is the most wins of the season, which is seven to one between Norris, Verstappen and Pastry so far. Winner – tomorrow.
If none of them win in Abu Dhabi and the standings are still tied, then the championship will be decided by the total of their draws. Wait, wrong game.
After a win, it will go down the order and finish in second place. Norris leads the category with eight, followed by Verstappen (five) and Pastry (four).
Before you can draw drama, there won’t be a three-way tie as Piastri can’t equal Norris – there’s no result that can get 16 points – so there’s at least one result that can be avoided.
The 2010 championship saw a four-way battle in Abu Dhabi between Alonso (then with Ferrari), Red Bull’s Mark Webber and Sebastian Vettel, as well as Lewis Hamilton (then with McLaren).
Vettel had not led the standings all year until it was all over as he won the race to claim his first of four consecutive titles. He became the world’s youngest champion at the age of 23 years and 134 days.
Flashback to 2007, when Ferrari’s Kimi Raikkonen trailed Hamilton and Alonso (then teammates at McLaren) entering the final race of the season in Brazil. Räikkönen won the race and his first and only championship by a point over Hamilton and Alonso.
What is the line that those who fail to learn history are doomed to repeat?
McLaren’s attempt to please everyone pleases no one.
With both drivers mathematically in the drivers’ championship hunt, the team is unwilling to do the other a favor – even if it costs them both titles.
The constructors’ championship is what matters to McLaren, and the team cruised to its second straight team title back at the Singapore GP in early October.
It will be interesting to see how McLaren’s “rules of thumb” play out in Abu Dhabi.
Piastri crushed it on Saturday, winning the sprint and pipping Norris for pole position during qualifying for the GP.
While Verstappen has been on the back foot since the aforementioned Dutch GP, it remains the most recent time Piastri has won a non-sprint race with just one other podium finish – third place at Monza – to show for it.
The Australian driver’s return to Qatar may have come too late, as fate is not entirely in his hands. Piastri will need to finish in the top two in Abu Dhabi – and even that won’t be enough depending on where Norris and Verstappen finish.
Sainz scored his second podium finish since joining Williams earlier in the season, having been given the boot by Ferrari to make way for seven-time world champion Hamilton.
When was the last time Williams had multiple podium finishes in one year? It was a decade ago, when Valtteri Bottas and Filipe Massa combined to earn four during the 2015 season.
For the record, Sainz’s two GP podiums are two more than Hamilton has earned with the Scuderia.
No Harmer time for Hamilton
It was a double whammy weekend for Hamilton, who failed to make it out of the first round of qualifying for both the sprint and GP. Hamilton started the race down 18th and moved up six places to finish 12th – still outside the top 10 and therefore out of the points.
Hamilton’s Ferrari team-mate Charles Leclerc finished eighth, but the Monegasque driver already looked like a broken man after qualifying 10th.
“Normally, I’m a very optimistic person, but I have to say that this weekend, this car has zero performance,” Leclerc said Saturday, according to Formula 1.com.
Looks like someone needs a hug.