Hamas After the Ceasefire: Palestinian Authority Weakened but Still Dominant in Gaza

The Israeli army’s campaign in Gaza dealt a devastating blow to Hamas: it killed Hamas leaders and thousands of militants, destroyed the militant group’s tunnel network and destroyed its ability to threaten Israel. by rocket fire.

When Hamas launched its attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, it hoped to ignite a regional war that would lead to its allies and lead to Israel’s destruction. Instead, it was left to fight against Israel almost alone. His allies were destroyed in Lebanon, overthrown in Syria and weakened in Iran. The Houthis in Yemen have failed to launch sporadic rocket and drone attacks, most of which have been intercepted by Israel.

Despite its isolation, Hamas remains the dominant Palestinian authority in Gaza after 15 months of Israeli bombardment, holding power in the refugee camps and refusing to surrender. -body. Although many Palestinians criticized the group’s decision to launch the October 2023 offensive — unleashing a war that killed tens of thousands of Gazans and reduced the city to rubble — it faced widespread public unrest.

Hamas hailed the interim ceasefire announced on Wednesday as a “progress”, but its future role in Gaza remains uncertain.

The deal calls for a “permanent cessation of hostilities and hostilities,” but Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly suggested he would resume attacks on Hamas after some hostages held by the militants are released.

But if the full, multi-step deal is reached, it could allow Hamas to re-establish its iron grip on Gaza, or at least allow it to maintain a significant role in the territory. Hamas-affiliated analysts believe that Israel will fight to continue the war in the face of international pressure, and that Hamas will play a major role in Gaza’s future.

“Hamas will be in every detail in Gaza,” said Ibrahim Madhoun, a close analyst of the militant group based in Turkey. “Trying to bypass Hamas will be like burying your head in the sand.”.

Mr. Madhoun acknowledged that Hamas’ military wing, the Qassam Brigades, had suffered losses, but said it was still “standing on solid ground” and had recruited new recruits to replace those killed. Antony J. Blinken, US Secretary of State, said this week that US officials estimated that Hamas has recruited more new fighters than it has lost in the war.

Re-arming may be more difficult for Hamas, having spent many of its weapons but with no easy way to restock, especially as the foreign supporters it has signed up have dwindled.

But if Israel decides to return to the war, it could further weaken the group, remove new commanders and target what remains of its government.

In such a situation, Israel could move to occupy Gaza, which would “cut off Hamas but against everyone else in public,” said Tamer Qarmout, a professor of politics. -public at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies.

Some Israeli officials have previously argued that the deal allows Hamas to remain in place, even if Israel returns to the conflict.

“Hamas scored a lot with this deal,” said Michael Milshtein, a former military intelligence analyst specializing in Palestinian affairs. “They got the two things they demanded for a long time written into the agreement: the end of the war and the withdrawal of Israel.”

And if Israel restarts the conflict, it will enter “a war of attrition where there is no light at the end of the tunnel,” said Mr. Milshtein. “Hamas is ready to lead Israel back into the mud in Gaza.”

However, Hamas may need to offer a compromise if it wants enough aid to rebuild Gaza to join the territory. So far, Hamas leaders have expressed a willingness to abandon civilian rule in Gaza, but have not disbanded its military wing — a move that analysts say would be similar to Hezbollah’s role in Lebanon before its collapse. His Israel.

“I think everyone, including Hamas, understands that solving the people’s problems requires Hamas to leave the front line,” Mr. Qarmout said, adding that an agreement with the Palestinian Authority is needed the international community to share power.

Although Hamas supporters acknowledged that the October 2023 attack had caused great suffering to Palestinians, they refused to express remorse for the attack that killed 1,200 people, mostly civilians. They pointed out that Israel’s bombing after the Gaza bombing has revived the world’s interest in the Palestinian cause and damaged Israel’s reputation.

Saudi Arabia, which came close to severing diplomatic ties with Israel before the war, has offered Palestinian statehood as a condition for the deal.

Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and former defense minister, Yoav Gallant, are wanted for crimes by the International Criminal Court. And the state was accused of murder in the International Court of Justice. Israel strongly denies both accusations, but its international reputation has been tarnished like never before.

“Before the war, nobody followed what was happening in Palestine,” said Fouad Khuffash, a close analyst of Hamas based in the Israeli-occupied West Bank. “Now, everyone is watching,” he added.

In a speech on Wednesday, Khalil al-Hayya, a senior Hamas negotiator, called the October attack a “military act” that will remain “the pride of our people.”

For many civilians, the future is bleak with Israel and Hamas in the picture.

“We are talking about a people stuck between a state willing to do absolutely brutal things and a group willing to provoke that state to violence,” said Akram Atallah, a Palestinian journalist from Gaza.

Patrick Kingsley SY Aaron Boxerman contributed to the reporting of this article.