Ideas | Ending the Middle East conflict is in Trump’s hands

Before considering the pitfalls and weaknesses of the Gaza ceasefire, let’s take a look at its potential. Fifteen months after the horrific attack by Hamas on Israel and the start of Israel’s occupation, Gaza is a land of no people, the majority of the population is homeless 2 millions of them, hungry and hopeless, and the hostages who are still alive, in the hands of Hamas terrorists. , has been taken away from his loved ones for too long. Even the release of the hostages, and even a few weeks of unlimited humanitarian aid in Gaza, is good news.

The deal was a tribute to months of relentless efforts by the Biden administration and negotiators from Egypt and Qatar, and 11th-hour pressure from Donald Trump. Debate has raged over who deserves credit for reaching the ceasefire and who is to blame for delaying it for so long, but the indisputable fact is that the United States is still has a strong influence on events in the Middle East – including the fate of the United States. this agreement, which requires great effort.

The agreement involves three steps, only the first of which is described in detail. The first phase will last six weeks, during which 33 hostages – women, men over 50, sick and wounded – and hundreds of Palestinian prisoners are to be exchanged. Israel should allow aid to increase in its region, and Israeli soldiers should begin withdrawing from population centers. Negotiations for a second, more difficult phase will begin while the first is underway, and should cover the release of the remaining captives held by Hamas and more Palestinians held by Israel, and a “full withdrawal.” of Israel. The details of the third phase are unclear, but it is likely to include the return of the remaining hostages and prisoners and a plan to rebuild Gaza. The critical question of who will govern Gaza after the ceasefire also remains unsettled.

This leaves room for both sides to backtrack, as negotiations have always done. Phased plans have a poor record in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict because they are restricted by both sides from implementing the terms of the current process, and leave room for enthusiasm on both sides. on the other hand to hinder the process, like the end of Oslo, Oslo II, Hebron. , the River Wye and many other “peace processes” testify.

Neither Israel’s far-right nor Hamas are interested in the deal. For Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-wing followers, not destroying Hamas is intolerable. And some extreme nationalists – including Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir, who resigned as defense minister on Sunday over the deal – have not given up their desire to build on the success of the Israeli army against Hamas and Hezbollah to retake the Jewish cities in Gaza annex West Bank region. Hamas, which reveled in the atrocities it committed in Israel on October 7, 2023, and successfully invited the destruction of the territory it claims to lead, will try to use the release of many prisoners to strengthen its position among the Palestinians and remove shame in any deal that further loosens its grip on Gaza.

This places a huge responsibility on the Trump administration to keep the process on track. President Trump has been widely and rightly credited with pushing Mr Netanyahu to accept a ceasefire, first by warning in early January that “all hell would break loose” if the men were not released. hostage when he entered his office and then when he was sending his. old friend and new envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, will rely exclusively on Mr. Netanyahu. This allowed the prime minister to tell the right wing parties that he had no choice, because the president they were hoping for was not with them then.

Mr. Trump’s boast that the deal was the result of “our historic victory in November” — the deal that pushed Mr. Trump across the finish line — is the same deal President Joe Biden offered may not be fully justified. last May. was accepted no matter what. But if Mr. Trump believes he played a role in making the deal happen, he should also accept his role in supporting the ceasefire and ending it.

That doesn’t mean he will. Mr. Trump’s only clear demand from Israel is that the hostages be released in time for his inauguration. The history of his first career in the White House shows little love for the Palestinians and no interest in the “two-state solution” that has been the holy grail of American diplomacy for years. One of Mr. Trump’s first actions after his inauguration was to lift sanctions imposed by the Biden administration on far-right Israelis and settlement groups. And when asked if he thought there would be a cease-fire, he expressed little interest in war. “This is not our fight,” he said. “It’s their fight.”

In any case, Mr. Trump is more interested in building on the Abraham Accords led by his first administration, in which Israel established relations with the United Arab Emirates, and to strengthen relations between them as well. to Israel and Saudi Arabia. He is said to see a Nobel Peace Prize there, but not for his famously thankless efforts to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

In addition, it is likely that he will be as unpredictable and hasty in dealings abroad as he was in the first place. Mr. Netanyahu and his far-right allies, and the surviving leaders of Hamas, will be watching Washington closely for signs, and without American pressure, the deal will be in jeopardy.

It will be up to Mr. Trump’s new foreign policy team — National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Mr. Witkoff — to remind the president that his government is responsible for the ceasefire, and to mark. but a renewed war in Gaza and the annexation of all parts of the West Bank could undermine Mr. Trump’s ambitions for regional diplomacy.

By contrast, a peaceful Gaza and an international reconstruction program financed by Gulf oil money could be central to Mr. Trump. This will facilitate the establishment of diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, and this, in turn, will strengthen the American-led coalition to force Iran to the negotiating table.

Such programs are more feasible at a time of intense turmoil in the Middle East. Israel is in an unusual position of strength: Iran’s proxies to the north and south, Hamas and Hezbollah, have been effectively defeated, while the collapse of the Assad regime has left Syria dangerous and has further reduced Iran’s ability to threaten Israel. A ceasefire in Gaza could also hasten the end of Mr Netanyahu’s rule, giving the Trump administration a fresh start under new, more moderate leadership.

The Middle East, unfortunately, has a way of disrupting optimistic situations. The return of the hostages and the opening of Gaza to much-needed food, clothing and medical supplies has been a huge and assured achievement. Progress doesn’t have to stop there.