Ideas | It’s a messed up and dangerous Trump world

We live in an increasingly dangerous and frightening world. There is more lightning in global geopolitics today than we have seen in decades, presenting a generational challenge to the administration of Donald Trump and all elected leaders of the United States. .

At the Panetta Institute for Public Policy, I tell students that in our democracy we govern by leadership or by crisis. If the leaders are there and willing to take the risks associated with the responsibility, we can avoid, or certainly control the crisis. But if the leader is not there, we will have to manage the crisis. The same is true of foreign policy.

As Trump is about to be inaugurated for a second term, the key question around the world is whether he will return to the unpredictable and volatile approach to foreign policy that defined his first term or take the point he stressed over and over again. his “peace through force” campaign.

President-elect Trump cannot adopt this foreign policy principle, which says that a strong military can prevent conflict, without adopting the definition that President Ronald Reagan gave so clearly in his speech marking the 40th anniversary of the Normandy invasion. “We in America learned bitter lessons from two world wars,” said Mr. Reagan, who popularized the idea. “It is better to be ready to defend the peace than to take shelter blindly on the other side of the sea, hurrying to respond only when the opportunity is lost.” He also made it clear that “the strength of America’s allies is important to the United States.”

The world that awaits Mr. Trump is different from and more threatening than what he had to face during the first four years. Autocrats who worked in their own spheres are now united in mutual support and violence: Vladimir Putin in Russia is not only a bully but a tyrant who attacked Ukraine’s true democracy and continues to threaten democracy. in the country. the west; China’s Xi Jinping has made it clear that he is prepared for a possible invasion of Taiwan and wants to compete with the United States as a military power; North Korea’s Kim Jong Un not only threatens democracy in South Korea but also sends thousands of drones and troops to Russia to fight the Ukrainians; Iran, weakened by Israel, continues to enrich uranium and moves closer to developing nuclear weapons; and ISIS reared its ugly head again by inspiring a “lone wolf” attack in New Orleans.

Mr. Trump has always prided himself on being a dealmaker, promising on the campaign trail that he would resolve such disputes within the first few days of his presidency. But since the world is more dangerous, it probably won’t happen. And if he tries and fails, the United States will appear weak. There are concerns that Mr. Trump may have gotten off to a bad start by threatening Greenland, the Panama Canal Zone and Canada. These are the kind of reckless and disruptive comments that only undermine Americans’ confidence when faced with a real crisis.

But now is the time when “peace with power” can really work. It will take strong, mature and stable leadership to turn today’s multipolar crisis into an opportunity for America. The next president may be a dealmaker, but he must come from a position of strength. And strength begins with the United States remaining the most powerful military power on earth.

To ensure that, the new administration must be prepared to increase military investment in recruitment, training, readiness, nuclear weapons systems, the US defense industrial base and research and technology. To accomplish all this, the defense budget cannot rely on the unpredictability of ongoing decisions. There must be a five-year budget that clarifies security priorities and achieves savings in duplication, procurement and bureaucracy.

Regarding Ukraine, it is becoming clear that Ukraine and Mr. Putin must find a way to negotiate the war. Mr. Trump should make it clear that the United States will continue to work with NATO to support Ukraine and that Mr. Putin will not be allowed to succeed. If this message is clear to Mr. Putin and if Ukraine can gain leverage with Russia, President Volodymyr Zelensky will have the power to negotiate a deal that gives Ukraine sovereignty and security, allowing Russia will stay in Crimea and other limited areas and achieve the goal. the war ends. This will be peace with strength.

Mr. Trump should tell China that he will help Taiwan defend itself, that the South China Sea will remain open in accordance with international law and that he will support strong cooperation with Japan, South Korea, Australia, India and other Asian countries the United States. protect the freedom of the seas and trade in the Pacific. From a position of greater military strength, the United States will have the advantage of more productive discussions with China on trade, cybersecurity, fentanyl, satellites and other economic issues. Simply expanding tariffs on China and starting a trade war will cause an economic downturn among unhappy US consumers. The answer is no deal.

Iran is yet another opportunity. Israel has strengthened Tehran both militarily and economically; may be open to negotiations on limiting nuclear development and ending support for proxies in exchange for easing economic sanctions. Since the previous Trump administration was critical of the creation of the Abraham Accords, Mr. Trump could work with Israel to include Saudi Arabia in the agreement, along with other moderate Arab countries. . Building cooperation in the Middle East will be important in dealing with Iran and terrorism, and establishing an approach to peace in the Middle East.

The president, as commander in chief, has the power and responsibility to define America’s future security. If it ignores this amazing power, the United States may see another major war. But if presidents understand their power, as Mr. Reagan did, they can provide strong leadership and build partnerships that lead the world out of war. The key to peace is strength, and the key to strength is leadership.

Leon E. Panetta was the secretary of defense and director of the CIA during the Obama administration. He founded the Panetta Institute for Public Policy in 1997.

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