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Dear President Trump:
You may not be interested in Jewish or Arabic history, but they are both very interesting to you today. This is one of those rare times – like after World War I, World War II and the Cold War – when everything is in play in the Middle East and everything is possible. And now, everyone is waiting for you.
Without exaggeration: You have the opportunity to transform this region in ways that will fundamentally increase the peace and prosperity of Israelis, Palestinians, and all peoples of the region, as well as the national security interests of the region. America.
Unfortunately, while the rewards of success will be great, the consequences of failure will be absolute hell. It’s a Nobel Prize or a booby prize. But there is no escape from this mission. The Middle East will either be reborn as a powerful region that defines the goals of normal relations, trade and cooperation or it will disintegrate into a few powerful states surrounded by a vast area of chaos, conflict and conflict. terrorists who specialize in the use of drones.
In every train schedule there is something known as the last train. Well, when it comes to reconciliation between Israelis and Palestinians, before Israeli settlements in the West Bank completely stifle the possibility of a two-state agreement; to end the 50-year civil war in Lebanon, while there is still hope; the reunification of Syria after 14 years of war; and getting rid of Iran before it gets a nuclear bomb, it really looks like the last train.
On Sunday, for the first time since October 7, 2023, there was hope that this war might end, as Israelis hugged loved ones held hostage for more than a year and Gazans left shelters and returned to their homes. his country. house – which is still standing. Haaretz quoted Ahmed Mattar of Gaza City, one of the many displaced Palestinians traveling north with their goods on carts and donkeys, saying something that I’m sure most of Israelis and Palestinians (and certainly meant for me): Stop.”
No one has a bigger say in this than you, President Trump. So let’s consider the challenge.
I’m sure you understand by now from your recent engagement with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – pressuring him to agree to a cease-fire and hostage exchange that Biden and Bibi have opposed – that the opposite is true. political and diplomatic ambitions. for him.
Your ambitions and America’s interests, in fact, combine to destroy Bibi’s cabinet and end his political career. An old Joe Biden, whom Bibi can take, is her dream. You are his dream. Monday’s headline in Haaretz — “Netanyahu Lies to Trump and Prepares to Sabotage Gaza Ceasefire Agreement” — didn’t make it off the air.
Your interest is to bring Israel and Saudi Arabia into a US-led alliance with other Arab partners, and that requires Israel to open a dialogue on a solution to ‘the two states with the Palestinian Authority. Netanyahu’s political survival — what will keep his coalition in power and prevent a national commission of inquiry into who was at fault for Hamas’s surprise attack on his watch — depends on the Gaza war that continued after that cease-fire and Bibi did not open time-limited negotiations. with the Palestinian Authority in two states for two peoples.
That is why, in response to the violent attack by Hamas in 2023, Netanyahu launched a war to destroy Hamas in Gaza, but he had two conflicting goals – plus there was no vision of peace with the Palestinians after the end. that’s it.
Netanyahu’s goal is “total victory” over Hamas and the return of the hostages. But a full military victory over Hamas, even if possible, would almost certainly mean the death of most if not all of the hostages.
Unfortunately and surprisingly, the top Jews in Netanyahu’s cabinet, Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, pressured Netanyahu into a war to destroy most of Gaza, even at the cost of accusing Israel would have even committed a crime, in the hope that it would lead to totalitarianism. the displacement of Palestinians and the Israeli annexation of parts of Gaza — hostages be damned. Bibi goes with Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, until you force her to choose.
Yes, Hamas is an Islamo-fascist organization that has cursed the Palestinian people. But as a movement, it can only be undone by other, more moderate Palestinians. Netanyahu neither wanted nor tried to help build an alternative to Hamas in the form of reform and reform of the West Bank Palestinian Authority. He kept sending his army in and out of Gaza, resulting in the prophecy of this column: a long-term insurgency like we started in Iraq before we switched to a strategy of clear, hold and build decent options. Have you seen how many Israeli soldiers have been killed recently in Gaza by Iraqi-style IEDs made from unexploded Israeli weapons?
As then-Secretary of State Antony Blinken put it last week in his farewell to Middle East diplomacy: “Every time Israel finishes its military service and Hamas retreats, the militias regroup and re-emerge because there is nothing else to fill the void. . Indeed, we estimate that Hamas has recruited almost as many fighters as it has defeated. This is a recipe for long-term insurgency and long-term war. “
US policy must ensure that the three phases of this ceasefire agreement are implemented and followed by a genuine diplomatic process for a broader peace. I agree with the Israeli strategist Gidi Grinstein’s argument that only a reformed and reformed Palestinian Authority can replace Hamas in Gaza, but it needs the support of international or Arab forces, which the PA has asked to help in defense and rehabilitation.
Gaza should be divided into Areas A and B, like the West Bank under the Oslo Accords, during a four-year transition period. 80 percent of Area A (under international/Palestinian forces), and 20 percent (generally the perimeter) will remain under Israeli military control until the defense of Israel.
After a four-year transition, the two sides will agree on a permanent status with the West Bank, at which point, it is hoped, the Palestinian Authority will be led by an incorruptible institution-builder, like former Prime Minister Salam Fayyad. This approach would close the US-Saudi-Israeli-Palestinian security agreement.
Meanwhile, in Lebanon we have a great opportunity to end the civil war there and rebuild the country. The new president, Joseph Aoun, and the newly appointed prime minister, Nawaf Salam, are highly respected, calm, patriotic Lebanese — which is why many Lebanese took to the streets to celebrate their inauguration.
The most important thing for American diplomats to do, apart from offering Lebanon economic aid to rebuild and military aid to strengthen its army, is to make the UN-agreed border between Lebanon and Israel the end.
Why? Because for decades Hezbollah has justified keeping weapons by saying it is necessary to retake the Israeli-occupied areas of southern Lebanon. Everything went wrong, with a few disputed meters and half kilometers along the border.
It is very important for the United States and Israel to take this oxygen from the border war away from Hezbollah. But we also need to make it clear to Lebanon’s Shiites that America wants them — and will help them — as equal citizens of the Lebanese state, without having to rely on armed Hezbollah.
After speaking with an Israeli official the other day, I am convinced that Bibi understands this and by completely weakening Hezbollah and Iran, he has helped to establish the possibility of Lebanon and Syria to restore his sovereignty and unity. I think he is willing to complete the withdrawal of Israel and complete the border — if the Lebanese government produces military forces to ensure that Hezbollah cannot enter southern Lebanon again.
(Note, Mr. President: You really should retain Amos Hochstein, Biden’s special envoy in Lebanon, to handle this job. He is highly respected by Hezbollah there.)
A stable and pluralistic Lebanon is the best stepping stone for rebuilding Syria. In Syria, we need to build some sort of alliance between the United States, Turkey, Jordan, Iraq and Israel as an engine to help strengthen a coalition government there that balances the Islamists – whose fighters overthrew Bashar’s regime. al-Assad. and the majority and majority of Syrians disagree.
It will not be easy, but we must try. I believe that the new Syrian de facto leader, Ahmad al-Shara, has the potential to be a worthy and unifying national leader for the country, but we must be on hand to motivate, influence and pressure him to do the right thing. – even if we fail. The worst thing you can do is to wash your hands of Syria at this moment or just turn it over to Turkey.
Finally, regarding Iran, Israel has done the world a great favor by depriving this horrible, corrupt, repressive regime of most of its ability to project power throughout the region through failed governments and proxy militias in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen while hiding behind them. Tehran’s nuclear program.
This nuclear program and Iran’s bad zone strategy need to be dismantled. I hope you can do it by peaceful negotiation; otherwise, it needs to be done kinetically. The more we fear the second, the more likely we are to get the first.
Good luck, Mr. Trump. History is watching you.
