Ideas | What is the real meaning of the ceasefire agreement

With the long-sought ceasefire agreement in place, both President Biden and President-elect Donald Trump can claim credit for their achievements, while Israel and Hamas ponder what exactly they signed up to. those.

The first phase of the deal calls for the release of 33 of the 100 or so hostages still being held in Gaza, a six-week ceasefire, an Israeli withdrawal from populated areas, and the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Israel, and the outbreak of war. humanitarian aid in Gaza. Phase 2, to be negotiated during Phase 1, includes the return of the remaining hostages, the withdrawal of all Israeli forces from Gaza and a permanent ceasefire. The final phase includes the return of all remaining hostages and the reconstruction of Gaza.

The deal is good news for some of the hostages, their families and the long-suffering people of Gaza. But the transition to the second phase of the plan is by no means certain, raising questions about whether the war will actually end. For Mr. Trump, who has described the ceasefire as the first success of his presidency, the sad fact is that he is now bound by responsibility for the end of the agreement.

In the short term, Israel will celebrate the return of the hostages, most of whom are believed to be alive, held in inhumane conditions for 15 months, and worry about the fate of those still in captivity. Many Israelis will also bemoan the release of Palestinian prisoners, at least some of whom actually have Israeli blood on their hands, and wonder if they will return to terrorist activities. Israeli politics are sure to become more volatile and volatile, amid threats from the far right to leave the coalition in opposition to such a deal.

Hamas will benefit from the cessation of hostilities that have greatly reduced its ranks. If the Palestinians are given a chance to rebuild their lives, Hamas may well rebuild as well — rebuilding its army and weapons and recruiting fighters to replace the thousands of Israelis it claims have abandoned. Although Hamas has been badly beaten, it has survived the Israeli attack and will certainly survive as an insurgency. Indeed, if nothing else, this deal will expose the hollowness of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s vision of a total victory over Hamas.

Gazans, on the other hand, are facing a terrible humanitarian crisis that has scarred a generation. The Hamas-run Health Ministry says more than 46,600 Palestinians have died in Gaza since the war began, although it does not distinguish between combatants and civilians. The war caused enormous hardship in the region: famine, lack of water and health care, and extensive destruction of homes and infrastructure.

Mr. Biden can take satisfaction that a ceasefire has finally arrived, which has eluded him for so long and that more hostages, including several Americans, will now be freed. But revolving around this 11th hour achievement is the image of the president-elect who has positioned himself to take credit for the deal. Mr Trump’s bully pulpit threat that “all hell will break loose” if no deal is reached before he takes office appears to have worked: His Middle East envoy is said to have pressed Netanyahu hard for a deal , and Mr. Netanyahu agreed. .

In fact, the level of cooperation between the outgoing and incoming US administrations on this issue has been remarkable. Indeed, based on half a century of public service, we know of no example of a president-elect and his unofficial envoy playing such a close and visible role in high-level negotiations with the support of the president in office. .

It may be that Mr. Netanyahu — eager to keep Mr. Trump in his court and determined to win support for a tougher Israeli policy against Iran’s nuclear program, among other issues — decided to hand him a victory. before the inauguration. He may have calculated that Mr. Trump’s confirmation would be more difficult and expensive because of his habit of ignoring the Biden administration.

The success of this agreement will depend on Mr. Trump’s policies as president. He now has the process: the return of all hostages, the release of more Palestinian prisoners and a six-week ceasefire. All of this will be difficult, and its success or failure will determine whether the agreement is just a stop-gap between rounds or a real path to peace.

Sixteen days into the first phase, negotiations should begin to return the remaining hostages and Israel withdraw from Gaza. This is where the endgame between Israel and Hamas may differ: Hamas will not give up its remaining hostages — its only trump card — without an Israeli commitment to end the war and leave Gaza. And Mr. Netanyahu, fearing the victory of Hamas and worried about his political future, will not accept it unless there is a way to find an international or regional defense force that has a proven ability to prevent Hamas in arms. However, a full Israeli withdrawal needs to be gradual and tied to the performance of the security forces.

It is likely that after six months of calm and unrestrained aid in Gaza, it will be too difficult or too expensive for either Israel or Hamas to return to war. But it is hard to believe that Mr. Netanyahu will end the war as long as Hamas remains an armed insurgency and a political force. As for Mr. Trump, he could decide to withdraw from the case and blame Israel and Hamas for the failure. But if he’s interested in an Israeli-Saudi legal agreement and a Nobel Peace Prize — or just “days after” Gaza refunds — that means he’ll face a lot of problems, including the Palestinian Authority. not updated; security, governance and reconstruction in Gaza; and a two-state solution that could put him at odds with Mr. Netanyahu and his right-wing government. Indeed, Saudi Arabia’s conditions for normalization have become much stronger, possibly requiring an Israeli commitment to a Palestinian state and concrete and tangible steps in that direction.

Does this new agreement lead to a cul-de-sac for the negotiators, or can it make way for Israelis and Palestinians? Is there any hope of a better outcome in this fight? The answer is “no” if Mr. Trump’s thinking and regional leaders are satisfied with the management of the conflict.

The possibility of a path to lasting peace depends on Israeli and Palestinian leaders who decide to be masters of their politics rather than prisoners of their ideology, and who are willing and able to define a better future. more based on the vision of two countries. for two people. It will also depend on a determined, persistent, creative American president — working with key Arab states and the international community — to help Israelis and Palestinians achieve this goal.

Aaron David Miller, a former State Department analyst and Middle East analyst, is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and author of “The End of Greatness: Why America Can’t (and Won’t) Have need) another boss. President.” Daniel C. Kurtzer was the United States Ambassador to Egypt from 1997 to 2001 and Ambassador to Israel from 2001 to 2005 and is a professor at the School of Public and International Affairs. at Princeton University.

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