Jets Quarterly Mark Report: Recent Skid Spoils Hot Start

With the Winnipeg Jets having played 21 games this year, it’s time for a quarterback mark report. Quite frankly, if this test had taken place after Game 19 — a 5-2 win over the Columbus Blue Jackets — the run would have been much different. As it stands, though, the past few days have been bad enough in Jetsland to change the vibes around the team and introduce the idea that there is some cause for concern.

On Friday, the team announced Connor Hellebuyck — also known as the reigning league MVP — will miss four to six weeks thanks to arthroscopic knee surgery. Since then, Eric Chambers has started two home games and lost both of them. In fairness to the room, the Jets failed to score a goal in the second of those contests, a 3-0 loss to a Minnesota Wild team that has now jumped Winnipeg in the Central Division standings.

That pair of losses underscores the point that the first quarter of Winnipeg’s season is really a tale of two halves. Through 12 games, the Jets posted a 9-3-0 record. Since then, however, the club has trudged through a 3-6-0 that has made November a much less fun month than October.

Throw in Hellebuyck’s injury and a central division that lived up to its preseason billing as the NHL’s Group of Death and you understand why Manitoba could be a low-to-mid-level handful.

Somewhat surprisingly, the Jets managed better out of the gates when three key players — captain Adam Lowry, second-liner Cole Perfetti and second-string defenseman Dylan Samberg — were out of the lineup. While the team’s fortunes have actually changed with those three guys debuting in November, you have to think that Winnipeg is better positioned to handle Hellebuyck’s absence with a trio of players in the lineup.

Still, with their star goaltender on the shelf, that figure is between here in Winnipeg and the point in January when it’s time for the midseason report.

The most encouraging development: The stars are delivered

Mark Schaeffel’s 1.33 points per game is the highest mark of all but six NHLers; Kelly Conner is 16th in that category with 1.19, and the only defenseman with more than Josh Morrissey’s 22 points is Kelly Meeker with 29. Even Haley Buick, before he underwent surgery, had the sixth-highest goalscorer in the league in over 60 minutes expected/60 minutes saved. Say what you will about Winnipeg, its big boys lead the way.

It should also be noted that the Jets entered camp with two big pending UFAs in the form of Connor and Lowry. Connor rebounded on the eve of the regular season for eight years, while Lowry returned from hip surgery and soon put pen to paper on a five-year extension.

More about the development: Trouble under the hood?

The prime numbers of which are not auspicious. A team that is defined by structure is 27th in Moneypuck’s expected goals for percentage metric. Last season, Winnipeg finished seventh in that category.

According to the site Power Rankings Guru, the Jets also have the second-easiest power of schedule. The power play, while still strong at 23.9 percent (ninth in the league), isn’t quite the lethal weapon it was last year, when the Jets finished first in the NHL at 28.9 percent.

Now, all this is happening against the background of Halibek being unavailable for six weeks.

This is really a conversation about the top line versus everyone else in the forward group. Mark Schaeffel (11), Kyle Connor (11) and Gabe Vilardi (eight) have scored 30 goals for Winnipeg this year; The remaining forwards, combined, are 26.

The top three will likely earn E-Plus on their own, but the second line — for various reasons — remains in slight flux throughout the year. After two years away from the NHL, Jonathan Toews has eight points and is minus-21 in 11 games. Cole Perfetti was injured in the final preseason game and sustained a lower-body injury. He returned on November 9 and has a goal in seven games. Vlad Namestnikov scored six goals through 12 games, but did not find the back of the net in nine.

The upcoming fourth event of the season needs to set another scoring wave for Winnipeg.

The return of Adam Lowry on November 4 was a boon for the bottom/middle-six forward crew. Jets coach Scott Arnell now has options in terms of running Lowry as a 2C with Toes underneath him, or vice versa.

Some of the winger situations are quite poor at the moment, with Gustav Nyquist – signed in the summer to provide secondary offense – still without a goal through 16 contests. In addition, Brad Lambert – the 30th pick in the 2022 draft – has been informed by the club that his representatives can explore trade options with other teams.

good news? Morgan Barron has emerged as a big, steady force in the middle of the fourth line.

Josh Morrissey is definitely the headliner here, as he’s showing the kind of form that could make him a Norse finalist when all is said and done. Dylan Samberg’s return from his broken wrist on Nov. 13 should help populate the top four, though Samberg’s running mate, Neil Pivenk, is listed as day-to-day.

Winnipeg really relies on the duo of Morrissey-Dylan DeMelo and Samberg-Pionk to carry the mail, so the club needs good health there and for everyone to find their rhythm now that Samberg is back.

Logan Stanley, a frequent scratch last year, has pitched for every game, has a career-high 17:07 per night and — after entering the season with five goals in 201 career games — already has three tallies this year.

When Hellebuyck finished his latest start, the Jets still ranked fifth in the NHL with a team save percentage of .905. He may not be posting a Hart Trophy-type season, but the big man was still pulling his weight. Behind him, Eric Chambers had a solid .908 save percentage in five games.

The dynamic is now completely different, the room is being counted at the start.

Joining the lineup in the current lineup is 22-year-old Thomas Malik, who figures to get his first career NHL action any minute now. A fifth-round pick in 2023, Melek had strong numbers with the Manitoba Moose in last spring’s AHL playoffs and is off to a good start this year with a .921 mark in nine AHL games. That said, we’re talking about a goalie who played 18 ECHL games last year.

One way or another, the Jets will have to do without their safety net for a while.

MVP: Mark Schiffel
Most Improved Player: Morgan Barron
Best defensive player: Josh Morrissey