Matchmaking in the UFC’s crowded lightweight division

Last weekend held a major piece of UFC lightweight business, as a choke round and over half of Dan Hooker’s arm triangle finish, Armaan Sarokin proved he remains the division’s most dangerous competitor despite an 18-month layoff.

Now, it is clear that Tsarukyan should fight for the title in 2026. Yet he’s not the first to do so as the UFC has been positioning wildly popular Paddy Pumblet for the next crack at Ilia Topuria’s crown for months.

Could Tsarukyan’s performance on Saturday change the calculus? is possible Either way, the top of the division is stacked, which leaves the rest of the top-10 needing work to prepare for the next level of competition.

So, let’s take a look at some of the lightweight fights that the UFC could make in the new year to set the stage and lay the groundwork for one of its premier divisions moving forward in 2026.

Paddy Pimblett v Ilia Topuria

Pumblet is 7-0 since arriving in the UFC, and undefeated since 2018, extending back to his Cage Warriors run, yet his recent track record doesn’t exactly argue a slam dunk case for a title shot.

In his last three fights, he defeated a 39-year-old Tony Ferguson to snap one of eight consecutive losses from the promotion, knocked out a 38-year-old King Green, and dropped a 39-year-old Michael Chandler’s UFC record to 2-5.

But Pumblet’s fight has been incredibly entertaining, and he’s seized every moment a live mic is within reach to sell his big personality. Like it or not, these style points add up quickly with a wide fanbase and UFC brass, the latter of whom has the business of fighting what the former wants to see.

The build-up to the Pimblett-Topuria fight alone is must-see, as two of the division’s most fiery trash talkers create a feud that’s been going on for years. And for nothing, Pimblett’s impressive differential (2.05) is sixth best in the division. He has absorbed fewer significant strikes per minute than Toporia over his UFC career. Pimblett should be a living underdog.

And while the test for every Toparia opponent is whether they can withstand his power, Pumblet has never taken a knockout or been dropped in his UFC career. There are dozens of different ways to sell this fight with both what these fighters do inside and outside the Octagon. And the company appears poised to do just that.

Winner of Arman Tsarukyan vs. Pimblett / Topuria

After Tsarukyan answered all questions about his preparation with a clinical slice through the hooker on Saturday, it’s clear who is the No. 1 contender in the lightweight division. In a qualifying system, should Tsarukyan get an immediate title shot? Sure. Especially after taking so little damage against Hawker.

Only one problem – the UFC is not a qualifier. And it doesn’t take a PhD in tea leaf studies to explain why the company has been steering Pemblette and Toporia into a collision for some time.

The UFC is entering into a new, $7.7-billion broadcast deal with Paramount in 2026. It wants to come out of the gate with several number cards including headliners who can both engage the audience and convince them to keep fighting. And Pimblett — a natural on the mic with an entertaining, cool-forward style — has an edge over Tsarukyan in both categories.

Still, Tsarukyan should be first in line, meaning mugging for the cameras and ready to step into the cage to face whoever wins. Tsarukyan vs. Topuria is one of the most elite skill matchups the UFC can put on its entire roster. And if Pumblet pulls off the upset, his already growing star power will skyrocket, making the first defense against an assassin like Tsarukyan a must-see.

Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway

Ironically, it’s been a decade since these two headlined a fight night card — in Saskatoon, Sask., of all places — as the up-and-coming featherweights try to stand up in a division dominated by Jose Aldo. It was one of the most anticipated fights on the calendar for die-hard fans but ultimately failed to deliver as Oliveira suffered an esophageal tear in the first round and was unable to continue.

So, now that both legendary models are in their late 30s and still among the most entertaining in the sport, why not give fans the rematch they’ve been waiting 10 years for? The bout already makes sense in the context of a lightweight contest — both are coming off victories in the division and ranked No. 2 (Oliveira) and No. 3 (Holloway). But it can also double as a BMF title fight at a number one event.

The significance of that event’s title is dubious to say the least, but Holloway is the holder who captured it from Justin Gaethje at UFC 300 and defended it against Dustin Poirier in July. Oliveira is certainly among a select group of deserving BMF candidates. So, if it helps raise the profile of an already forced war, why not?

Don Hooker vs. Justin Gaethje

If Gaethje is serious about retiring if his next fight isn’t for a title, then Hooker will need to join Oliveira and Holloway in the BMF discussion. But if Gaethje chooses to fight again, there’s as strong a bet as you can make for a wildly exciting fight behind the two of them closing the Octagon door.

It’s a good matchup that the UFC already booked for March, but Hawker was forced to withdraw after breaking his hand. Rafael Fiziev replaced him and Gaethje won in a back-and-forth battle of the night at UFC 313.

Now, tied for the top of the division, Geethaji needs to do something, lest he gets stuck on the edge. He’s already been out for almost a year and more inactivity won’t do him any favors. Hooker presents a good cross-section of a playoff opponent to be favored against Gaethje. And should he win, the 37-year-old will remain atop the title picture, just one turn away from the shot at the fate he is asking for.

Furthermore, for Hooker, facing a fellow action fighter guarantees the fight will draw eyeballs and be billed by many as the main event of any card it appears on. And not that he needs to sell that elusive fight, but Hooker already took a verbal jab at Gaethje, saying last week, “You can’t just be like, ‘I’m not going to play anymore if somebody doesn’t give me (a title shot)’ … sit around and point fingers and argue about who deserves it more. Just go out there and fight.”

With the lightweight championship contention unrealistic, there is value in the weight remaining in the fight fans want to see. And the winner of that could easily be booked in a BMF title fight with Oliveira or Holloway to headline a future card.

Renato Moicano vs. Mauricio Ruffy

Both of these veterans are looking for fresh obstacles to right the ship. Moicano fell short in a technical battle with Benel Dariush, while Rafi’s hype train was derailed by the physicality of Benoît Saint-Denis. But Rafi’s low output, high-powered style and Moicano’s sleek, former featherweight construction should ensure that none of those weaknesses reappear.

A 36-year-old who likes to stay active, Moicano could hang around the lightweight field for a while, testing up-and-comers trying to break into the top-10. And Rafi, just 29 and coming off the first blow of his otherwise electrifying UFC run, is exactly the kind of fighter you throw at a door. It’s easy to close one of the opening main card slots in a Pumblet vs. Toporia event.

Benoit St. Denis vs. Raphael Fazeef

After a pair of momentum-killing defeats at the hands of Dustin Poirier and Moicano, St. Denis has quickly reestablished itself in the division’s top 10, reeling off three 2025 victories, including a first-minute flattening of Darish earlier this month. There’s no reason for him to stop being active after that, so let’s quickly flip him to the 2026 start date with Rafael Fazeev.

St. Denis would likely prefer a big-name opponent, but finding him in the top 10 is hard to come by. It won’t be Toporia, Sarokyan, Gaethje or Pumblet. Oliveira and Holloway should fight each other. He could fight Mateusz Gamrot or Hooker, but they are both coming off losses. And he could try to get one back against Mocano, but that would arguably represent a fight at this point.

That leaves Fezif as a sane opponent winning. Gamrot is likely the next best option, but St. Denis has more to gain against Fezif, not to mention it’s a more favorable matchup. Saint-Denis wants to stand up and push, an offer Faziev will no doubt accept. Gamrot, on the other hand, hides in his lap and spends the night dragging Saint-Denis into his world.

With losses in two of his last three, Gamrot can defend his ranking against Alexander Hernandez, who has won four straight and should face a tough challenge. And the same could be said of Grant Dawson if he comes out on top against Manuel Torres when they fight at UFC 323 next month.