Matchmaking UFC’s red-hot welterweight division

It’s been a busy, exciting month for the UFC’s welterweight division, as most of its top-10 won a grand prix that produced a new champion, spawned several exciting up-and-comers, and created a series of new matchup possibilities that the company could have in the new year.

The divisional jockeying came to an end on Saturday, as Ian Machado cruised to a unanimous decision win over former champion Bilal Muhammad, who has now lost two straight. There are plenty of quality 170-pound fights for Muhammad if he wants them — there just isn’t a clear path back to the title. At 37, he must decide which direction is best in the final phase of his career.

Meanwhile, Gray has indicated that he doesn’t feel he needs to take another non-title fight after beating top contenders in his last two outings. We’ll see if he can actually sit back and wait for his chance, or if the UFC asks him to win once again while tied at the top of the division.

With so much recent activity and so many promising contenders emerging, there are plenty of welterweight matchmaking options in early 2026. So, let’s take a look at one arrangement we could see — we’ll take Gray at his word and leave him alone for now — as the UFC looks to keep up the momentum of its hottest division of the new year.

Kumar Usman vs. Islam Makhshev

Let’s start with a statement of fact – Gary Osman did a lot to earn a title opportunity. Full stop. And if UFC matchmaking were a completely equal, meritocratic system, is Usman the fighter you’d pick for Makhachev’s first title defense? must not. Usman has lost three of his last four, including a pair to Leon Edwards, who has been crushing the young up-and-comers at welterweight.

Osman could argue that he is coming off a win and a fight of the night bonus, but it ended up being Joaquin Buckley, who is young and talented, but not the top contender in the division. And Usman didn’t make a statement in action, winning on the strength of the takedown and top control for the first three rounds before going to the buckled feet. From the third through fifth periods, Buckley won the key strikeout battle, 41-24.

And yet, we must face reality. In addition to Usman making his case, here’s a non-exhaustive list of key voices who have recently hinted that he’s next for a title shot:

While many powerful principals are saying this, we should probably listen. And you can see everyone’s motivation.

Ousmane is the second best welterweight in UFC history behind Georges St-Pierre. For the legacy-minded Makhchev and Nurmagomedov, winning over him would be a significant scale. And over time, the context and circumstances of the fight would fade from the minds of fans, leaving only a notable name on Makhachev’s Tapology page.

For the UFC, it represents one last chance to bring Usman’s notoriety and identity to the attention of a wider audience. Like it or not, comfort is the majority of fans, and Usman’s name still carries weight thanks to a dominant title run that saw him defend his belt five times, including memorable matchups with outsiders Jorge Masvidal and Colby Covington.

We just saw the UFC run this playbook in the heavyweight division, where Jon Jones’ lone title defense came against Steph Miocic, a once-great champion who was 42 and hadn’t won in more than four years, while a thoroughly deserving Tom Spinal turned his wheels on the sidelines, despite winning and defending an interim title.

Jones closed as a -650 favorite against Micah, yet the fight still headlined a Madison Square Garden card that grossed $16.6-million, the fourth-biggest in UFC history. Despite the difficult conditions of the war, a large audience still wanted to see it.

The incentives are only too strong for those who make the most of Usman-Makhchev’s booking. Unfortunately for him, Gary will have to wait his turn. He can weigh in as a backup and watch from the front row, ready to jump into the Octagon to face the winner as his next opponent.

The situation is equally unfortunate for the rest of the division, which is as talent-rich and compelling as any in the sport right now. But the flip side is that there’s plenty of room to create interesting matchups that will keep everyone busy in the meantime and help shape who should be the next deserving challenger for the belt.

Shaukat Rakhmonov vs. Jack Della Maddalena

As completely outclassed as Della Maddalena was in losing her belt to Makhachev at UFC 322, we need to remember a few facts.

He was facing a fighter who will likely end up on MMA’s Mount Rushmore when all is said and done. He is only 29 and firmly within his athletic prime. It was the first time that the attention, pressure and expectations were acting up with the main event featuring the Madison Square Garden card as the defending champion. And it was his first loss in a 19-fight streak starting in 2016.

For these reasons and more, Della Maddalena remains one of the division’s most dangerous contenders and deserves a marquee matchup against a top-tier opponent in his return to the Octagon.

And the opposition in the weight class doesn’t come much higher than Rakhmonov, who is undefeated in his 19-fight professional career and was originally booked to face Muhammad for the title last December, before several twists of fate saw Della Maddalena replace him in that fight and take the belt himself.

After Muhammad pulled out of the December fight due to a bone infection, Rakhmonov accepted a late replacement fight against Gray. And though he came out on top in the five-round grinder, he developed a knee injury that eventually required surgery, sidelining him ever since. Rakhmonov is undoubtedly still one of the top fighters in the division – but after such a long layoff, he needs more wins over a stronger opponent to regain his title shot.

Michael Morales vs. Carlos Pratts

This fight should have been signed on the night of UFC 322, when Pratts took Edwards off his feet with a left hook straight from Hell, and Morales made quick work of a speedy Sean Brady. Knowing the two of them, they might want to fight there.

Both can make a convincing case to be the division’s most exciting up and coming. Pratts has finished each of his seven UFC fights by knockout. Morales has done so in five of his eight starts. Pratts has earned a bonus-night performance in his last six victories. Morales has done the same in his last three.

If your sole mission was to make the surest banner among the welterweight top-15, these are the two fighters you’d choose. And it’s a happy coincidence that a matchup between them would also carry significant stakes.

With Dela Maddalena and Muhammad both losing recent title fights, Geary, Rakhmonov, and both welterweights are the most deserving of a chance in the top five. The UFC could make an extremely entertaining fight and narrow the field into action.

Gabriel Bonfime vs. Sean Brady

Bonfime doesn’t have the same name recognition as others in this division, but it’s hard to ignore what he’s doing. He is 19-1 as a professional and 6-1 in the UFC; He won four straight, the last two over Stephen Thompson and Randy Brown. He is due for a tough challenge against anyone in the top 10.

Brady, meanwhile, is eager to stay active, which can be both a gift and a curse. That scores a fighter plenty of points with fans and his promoter, but it also increases the risk of a run-in with someone like Morales, who steamrolled Brady at UFC 322. Of course, Morales is a monster and on pace for a title shot, so Brady’s stock should suffer just as much. He is still one of the best players in the division.

For Bonfime, Brady is an important step in the competition and a test of whether or not he’s ready to connect with the division’s upper echelons. For Brady, the Morales fight was a fluke to prove Bonfime’s chance, and he remains as capable as many believed he was when he swept Edwards behind enemy lines in London earlier this year.

Joaquin Buckley vs. Leon Edwards or Bilal Muhammad

Coming off three consecutive losses against some of the division’s top rivals — Muhammad, Brady, and Purts — Edwards needs to figure out what his next step is. Does he believe there is a way back to the title he held and defended two years ago? Does he want to kick around as a welterweight doorman for Gilbert Burns and Neil Magny? Does he have enough frame to fill out and try his luck at middleweight?

You can ask such questions about Muhammad that hurt his reputation. Edwards is 34 years old. Muhammad’s 37. Assuming they want to stick around 170 pounds, both have to take a step back in competition.

And Buckley, coming off his loss to Usman, needs a winnable fight to restore his upward momentum. Most of his original push-up rankings came against former strikers like Vicente Luque and Thompson. It makes sense to try to get him back on track by feeding him one more at Edwards.

If Edwards doesn’t want it, call Muhammad. If Muhammed doesn’t want that, you’re at an unranked welterweight like Daniel Rodriguez, Joel Alvarez, or Uros Medic. No one wants to fight. But if the rest of the top-10 square off without him, the ever-active Buckley will have no choice.