NFL Week 11 Pick’Em: Do Jets Have Any Hope Against Surging Patriots?

Yes, 13 points is a lot for a divisional matchup, especially in a short week, but the Patriots allow the fewest rushing yards per game (79.2), and the Jets’ passing game is abysmal.

In his last four games, Jets QB Justin Fields has thrown for 54 yards or less three times.

prediction: Patriots -13 (-110)

The Dolphins have some good momentum coming off a big win over the Buffalo Bills.

Additionally, their run defense is improving. They have allowed just 94 yards per game over their last three, which is 23rd over that span.

prediction: Dolphins -2.5 (-118)

The Texans and Titans played earlier this season in Houston, and the Texans won 26-0.

Yes, this game is in Tennessee, but rookie QB Cam Ward has five touchdown passes in nine starts and plays one of the best defenses in the NFL.

prediction: Texans -7 (-115)

The Vikings blitz at the second-highest rate in the NFL. Against the Blitz, Bears QB Caleb Williams may not have the best completion percentage (53.9 percent), but he still pushes the ball downfield quite a bit (8.4 yards per attempt) and has thrown more than half of his touchdown passes (seven).

This Bears offense has recently seen, too, an average of 446.3 yards (seconds) per game over their last three.

prediction: Beer +3 (-110)

The Steelers lost 33-31 to the Bengals on the road on October 16th, and while the Bengals may have the better offense, I’d actually lean to the Steelers at -5.5.

I worry about the Bengals pass rush as Trey Hendrickson is unlikely to play.

Look for Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers to continue to rush the ball out to pick up easy yardage to put the team to work down the field, and at least avenge the loss from a month ago.

prediction: Steelers -5.5 (-110)

It’s been rough lately for the Falcons, losing their last four games, but it’s a key bounce back spot.

The Falcons primarily play Cover-3, and against this coverage, Panthers QB Bryce Young has completed just 56.7 percent of his passes for 472 yards (5.2 yards per attempt), with two touchdowns and four interceptions.

prediction: Falcons -3.5 (-110)

While the Bills scored in Week 10 against the Dolphins, this is a good place to right the ship.

Remember, it wasn’t that long ago, they eliminated the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Bulls’ main weakness is their run defense, but like the Chiefs, the Buccaneers are averaging just 99.8 rushing yards per game (25th). Over their last three games, that average is down to 80.7 (28th).

prediction: Bill -5.5 (-110)

The Giants named Jameis Winston their starting QB, and in terms of covering the spread, Winston’s gun-toting attitude is actually pretty good.

The Packers’ offense looked bad on Monday Night Football this past week, and while the Giants’ defense will certainly be more forgiving than the Philadelphia Eagles’, there are still some kinks to work out.

So, between the Packers’ offense and Winston’s passing, I’ll turn to a Giants cover.

prediction: Giants +7 (-110)

Since the win over the Chiefs, the Jaguars have had a tough time, barely scraping by the Seattle Seahawks, Rams, Las Vegas Raiders, and then losing badly to the Texans last week, allowing 26 unanswered fourth quarter points.

Now, this team, which primarily plays Cover-3 and Cover-6, will face the Chargers and QB Justin Herbert, who has completed 72.3 percent of his passes and has five touchdowns against said coverage.

prediction: Charger -3 (-105)

It was a rough go against the Seahawks last week, but look for the Cardinals and QB Jacoby Brissett to bounce back.

The biggest difference between the Seahawks and the 49ers is the pressure on defense. The Seahawks lead the league with 167 pressures, while the 49ers are third with 113.

When kept clean in the pocket, Burst has completed 72.3 percent of his passes for 731 yards with eight touchdowns and one interception.

prediction: Cardinals +2.5 (-105)

In what should be a great weekend game, we have two NFC West teams ranked inside the top five in points, top nine in total yards, and top 11 in fewest yards allowed per game.

Additionally, they are both in the top five in rushing, though the Seahawks have a 167 to 142 edge.

In a game like this, where both teams are evenly matched, I’ll go with the home team, but it’s going to be a close call.

prediction: Rams -3 (-110)

The Ravens’ defense is far from over, but I don’t trust the Browns and rookie QB, Dillon Gabriel, to take advantage.

Not only that, the Browns’ calling card, their run defense, has gotten worse recently, allowing 134.3 rushing yards per game over their last three, a notable increase from their season-long total of 97.9.

prediction: Ravens -7.5 (-110)

The Broncos are tied with the Seahawks for the league lead in pressures (167), and when the pressure is on, Mahomes has just two interceptions, but seven turnover-worthy plays.

That’s not a good statistic against this Broncos defense, especially in Denver.

prediction: Broncos +4 (-115)

The Lions offense looked to be firing on all cylinders last week with head coach Dan Campbell calling the plays.

Not only that, but the Lions have an excellent defense, allowing 265.7 yards per game on their back three (28th in that span).

prediction: Leo +2.5 (-105)

The Cowboys defense primarily plays Cover-2 and Cover-3. Against those coverages, Raiders QB Geno Smith has one touchdown and six interceptions.

Not only that, but the Raiders are averaging 204.7 yards per game over their last three, the lowest over that span.

prediction: Cow -3.5 (-102)