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It’s Thanksgiving week in the NFL, and going into it, the Los Angeles Rams are atop the Super Bowl odds at BetMGM at +425.
We’ll see all 32 teams face off in Week 13, with three games on Thanksgiving.
The week closes on the first day of December, with the New England Patriots hosting the New York Giants on Monday night.
Check out my predictions for these games and the rest of the slate below.
Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers
The Lions are allowing more than 1.8 passing touchdowns per game, and Packers quarterback Jordan Love has thrown multiple touchdown passes in eight of 11 games this season.
Additionally, the Lions play mostly Cover-1 and Cover-3, and compared to them, Love has eight touchdowns and two interceptions.
prediction: Packers +2.5 (-102)
Dallas Cowboys vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs’ passing attack is stagnant with BB Patrick Mahomes holding just one touchdown over his past three games.
I hope that changes, as the Cowboys allow 2.18 passing touchdowns (first) and 252.3 passing yards per game (30th in the NFL).
prediction: Sardar -3 (-115)
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals will likely have QB Joe Burrow back in the lineup for this game.
He will take on a Ravens defense that plays mostly Cover-1 and Cover-3. Against them going back to last season, Burrow has 18 touchdown passes.
Additionally, Ravens QB Lamar Jackson has suffered a new injury in each of his last three games, including one to his knee, another to his ankle and now to his foot, which could limit his impact.
prediction: Bengals +7 (-110)
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Chicago Bears
When facing the Eagles, opposing QBs have seen Cover-1, Cover-3 and Cover-6 on 76 percent of their dropbacks.
Against them, Bears QB Caleb Williams has been solid, throwing for 1,817 yards, 10 touchdowns, and two interceptions.
prediction: Beer +7 (-118)
Cleveland Browns vs. San Francisco 49ers
In limited action, Browns QB Shadow Sanders is averaging 3.15 seconds to throw. When their QB takes between three and four seconds to throw this season, the Browns have allowed 54 pressures, which is tied for fifth in the NFL.
When pressured this season, Sanders has completed 116 percent of his passes for 27.8 yards, two interceptions and three turnovers.
prediction: 49ers -5.5 (-110)
Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars are third in the NFL in pressures with 173.
Titans QB Cam Ward has been pressured on 37.7 percent of his dropbacks, and when he is under pressure, he has completed just 41.8 percent of his passes for 584 yards, 5.3 yards per attempt, one touchdown, three interceptions and six turnover-worthy plays.
prediction: Jaguars -6.5 (-115)
Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans
The Texans play Cover-3 more than anything else, and Colts QB Daniels Jones has two touchdown passes and three interceptions against that coverage.
I’m expecting a tight game because of Jones’ ability against these coverages, with the Texans averaging 25 points per game over their last three, which is seventh in the NFL over that span.
prediction: Texans +4.5 (-110)
Miami Dolphins vs. New Orleans Saints
The Saints are inside the top 10 in pressures allowed (161), and when he’s pressured, Saints QB Tyler Shaw has completed 38.2 percent of his passes and is averaging just 4.8 yards per attempt.
Besides, I don’t believe in the guilt of saints. They are averaging 10.8 points per game over their last five and have not scored more than 17 points in that stretch.
prediction: Dolphins -6 (-110)
New York Jets vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Jets are 30th in the NFL in pressures (114) and have not conceded a pass all season.
Offensively, the Jets are in the bottom five in total yards per game (283.2) and take on a Falcons defense that has allowed just 190.4 passing yards per game (eighth) this season.
prediction: Falcons -2.5 (-115)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Arizona Cardinals
Assuming Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield is cleared to play after suffering a shoulder injury last week, he should get the call on this Cardinals defense.
They play Cover-3 and Cover-4 most of the time, and Mayfield has completed 67.4 percent of his passes for 1,332 yards, seven touchdowns and one pick against them.
prediction: Buccaneers -3 (-105)
Carolina Panthers vs. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are third in pressures with 173 and face a Panthers squad that has allowed 157 all-time, which is tied for 10th.
Panthers QB Bryce Young has completed 49.5 percent of his passes and has six turnover-worthy plays when the pressure is on.
prediction: Rams -10 (-110)
Seattle Seahawks vs. Minnesota Vikings
Vikings QB JJ McCarthy is in concussion protocol, and if he can’t play, it will be Max Brozmer, an undrafted rookie who played college football at New Hampshire and Minnesota under center.
He and the Vikings will have to deal with a Seahawks defense that leads the league in pressures (201) and an offense that is third in scoring, averaging 29.5 points per game.
Tough pass on Minnesota.
prediction: Seahawks -10.5 (-105)
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills
The Bills are fourth in EPA per pass game at 0.24 and face a Steelers pass defense that allows 258.7 passing yards per game (31st).
The Bills may have a poor run defense, allowing 148.9 yards per game (30th), but the Steelers average 24.1 rushing attempts (26th) and 97.1 rushing yards (27th) per game.
prediction: Bill -3.5 (-115)
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Las Vegas Raiders
I’m not taking readers under any circumstances.
Their QB, Geno Smith, is tied for the league lead in interceptions, and they have fired offensive coordinator Chip Kelly and senior offensive assistant Bob Bicknell.
They are a disaster.
prediction: Chargers -9.5 (-115)
Washington Commanders vs. Denver Broncos
While the Broncos are second in pressures with 181, quarterback QB Marcus Mariota (assuming Jayden Daniels is out again) has actually played relatively well against them.
He’s completed just 45 percent of his passes, but the yards per attempt are at nine, and he has three touchdowns and three interceptions.
Couple that with the Broncos’ offense averaging just 16.7 points per game over their last three (26th in the stretch), and the Commanders will be able to keep him close.
prediction: Commander +6.5 (-102)
New England Patriots vs. New York Giants
The Patriots ran away with a 26-20 win over the Bengals and didn’t cover the spread in that game.
Now, back at home, they’re favored by 7.5 points, and that’s pushing me to the Giants.
The Patriots played a mix of coverages, but looking at their top four, Giants QB Jackson Dart, who should be fit after suffering a concussion a few weeks ago, has eight touchdown passes and two interceptions against them.
In contrast, the Giants play mostly Cover-1 and Cover-3, and Patriots QB Drake Maye has five interceptions against them.
I hope the Patriots win, but honestly, I can see it ending up like the Bengals game.
prediction: Giants +7.5 (-115)
