Syrians are looking to a future without Russia, but Moscow still hopes it will stay

Sharaa, now the de facto leader of Syria, said in an interview with the BBC last month that he would not rule out the possibility of the Russians staying, describing relations between the two countries as “strategic”.

Moscow seized on his words, with Foreign Minister Lavrov agreeing that Russia “has a lot in common with our Syrian friends.”

But untangling the ties in a post-Assad future may not be easy.

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Rebuilding the Syrian military will require either a fresh start or continued reliance on Russian supplies, which would mean at least some kind of relationship between the two countries, says Turki al-Hassan, a defense analyst and retired Syrian army general.

Syria’s military cooperation with Moscow predates the Assad regime, says Hassan. Almost all the equipment he has was produced by the Soviet Union or Russia, he explains.

“Since its inception, the Syrian army has been armed with Eastern Bloc weapons.”

Between 1956 and 1991, Syria received from Moscow some 5,000 tanks, 1,200 fighter jets, 70 ships and many other systems and weapons worth over $26bn (£21bn), according to Russian estimates.

Much has been made of Syria’s wars with Israel, which have largely defined the nation’s foreign policy since it gained independence from France in 1946.

More than half of that amount remained unpaid when the Soviet Union collapsed, but in 2005 President Putin wrote off 73% of the debt.

For now, Russian officials have taken a conciliatory but cautious approach toward the interim rulers who ousted Russia’s longtime ally.

Vassily Nebenzia, Moscow’s UN envoy, said the recent events marked a new phase in the history of what he called the “brotherly Syrian people”. He said Russia would provide both humanitarian aid and reconstruction support to enable Syrian refugees to return home.