The cease-fire in Gaza and Lebanon is the most likely to last, analysts say

The ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon may hold for now, although it will test its limits at the end of the week, as all sides want to face a general war at least for the next few weeks, said an observer.

In southern Lebanon, the Israeli army remained in place for the last time on Sunday due to learning, or in the middle of the Israelis that Hezbollah read the guarantee to leave the area. In Gaza, Hamas failed to release a hostage that Israel had hoped for on Saturday, prompting Israel to delay the return of displaced Palestinians to northern Gaza.

But even as each side has criticized the processing of their relations, analysts say, Israel and its opponents both have reasons to know and not to know the other’s violations.

Hezbollah, although angered in Israel for keeping troops in southern Lebanon, will risk a destructive Israeli conflict if it renews its rocket strikes on Israeli cities. Hamas wants to retain power in Gaza and risks losing it if fighting resumes. And Israel should maintain the current arrangement in Gaza long enough to free at least two dozen hostages. The Israeli leader also showed interest in President Trump, who committed himself to the promise to maintain peace in the East.

Highlighting their desire to expand the trumpet in Gaza, Israel and Hamas seem to have resolved the crisis over the weekend close to midnight on Sunday. The government of Qatar, a mediator between the sides, said that the female hostage, Arbel Yehud, will be released this week along with two others who will be released ahead of schedule. In response, Israel said it would allow Palestinians to move back to northern Gaza on Monday morning.

As for Lebanon, the White House announced that the truce will last until February 18. Although there was no immediate reaction from Israel or Hezbollah. The Lebanese office confirmed the expansion of the Lebanese office.

Aaron David Miller, a former US diplomat at the Middle East peace talks, said: “They’re going to go next week – it’s more about what people think.”

“They are not agreements between the United States and Switzerland. They are agreements that depend on each side giving the other and the other side to maneuver,” he added. “That’s his weakness, but also his strength.”

This operation allowed two of his children to survive at the end of the week, as the Israeli people shot and killed people in Lebanon and Gaza who tried to return to the areas still controlled by Israel.

The Lebanese health ministry said 22 people were killed by Israeli fire in southern Lebanon, and the Palestinian Authority said one person was killed in Gaza as a crowd in two locations. gathered near the Israeli army, which demanded to go home.

But on Monday morning, the situation in Gaza appeared to be relatively calm. In Lebanon, Hezbollah issued a statement praising settlers trying to return and calling on foreign powers to force Israel to leave. But Hezbollah did not continue its rocket fire.

Analysts say that Hezbollah is not only at risk of losing its leadership, but its leadership is weakening and its supporters are weakening. Also, the movement of the group’s heavy weapons through Syria was halted in December, when Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, an ally of Hezbollah, was destroyed by the rebels.

Hezbollah commanders “still have some missiles, they have some guns, they can do something,” said Hanin Ghaddar, a Lebanese analyst at the Washington Institute for Eastern Polities, a foreign research group.

“But they killed themselves if they knew, because they knew that any kind of attack by Hezbollah in Israel means that Israel will take advantage of the full blast and the remnants of it,” said Ms. . Ghaddar.

Hezbollah may also be reluctant to offer support to its Shiite Muslim base, especially in next year’s parliamentary elections, Ms. Ghaddar said. Lebanon’s Shiite community paid the biggest price for Hezbollah’s decision to go to war with Israel in October 2023 in alliance with Ally Hamas. Shiite villages and towns in southern Lebanon have been the target of Israeli airstrikes and attacks.

“If the Shia don’t vote for them, it’s the end of Hezbollah,” said Ms. Ghaddar, author of a book on Hezbollah’s relationship with the foundation. “They cannot do anything unless they know 100 percent that the Shiite community will support them.”

Because Hezbollah does not continue to fight anymore, the fire does not stop, the fire is considered to be the confusion of the two trues.

But his biggest test is not expected until early March, when Hamas and Israel must decide whether to extend the program beyond 42 hours to 42 days.

At this time, Israel has signed that it wants to keep prostitution in order to support the flow of hostages. But an extension requires both sides to agree on a permanent end to the war – a bridge that Benjamin NetJamine Minister of Israel appeared not to cross. Netanyahu’s government depends on far-right lawmakers who seek permanent Israeli control of Gaza, and the administration could collapse if the war ends with Hamas.

The terms of the contract allow for some balance. The truce could continue beyond the 42-day mark as long as the two sides continue to negotiate whether to make the arrangement permanent.

But Israeli officials say they won’t stop at endless negotiations, especially if Hamas doesn’t release hostages. And Hamas is unlikely to release the hostages, the biggest piece of the puzzle, without a promise from the Israelis to end the hatred forever.

“Hamas wants the fire but not the price,” said Mkhaimar Abusada, a Palestinian political scientist from Gaza. “They want a beautiful stop where the war ends.”

It may depend on President Trump’s willingness to cajole Mr. Netanyahu toward a more permanent truce. Mr. Trump’s private message is important to forget the first step, but it remains to be seen if he will maintain this American position more than a few weeks.

“If Netanyahu succeeds in convincing Trump of the need to renew the war, they may just renew the war,” said Mr. Abusada. “If Trump keeps his promise that he doesn’t want war and wants more peace – whether in Gaza, Ukraine or around the world – that’s another thing.”