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As we head into the NHL’s 2025-26 campaign, the league’s potential postseason picture is coming into focus.
It’s still early – too early. Most clubs have around 60 games left to play this weekend. Still, history suggests that this initial stretch could be an unusual indicator of how the standings might fare by the end of the year.
More specifically, by this point in the season — about 20-25 games in, which falls around Thanksgiving in America — the standings begin to separate among contenders and predictors. Every year, the majority of clubs that sit outside of a postseason spot at this point in the campaign end up stuck there when Game 82 rolls around.
Case in point: Of the 16 teams that were out of a postseason spot at this point last year, only four made it back into the mix by the end of the campaign (Ottawa Senators, Montreal Canadiens, Edmonton Oilers, and St. Louis Blues). A year ago, only three clubs that sat outside the playoffs at the end of November found a way into the year (New York Islanders, Nashville Predators and Oilers). The year before that, it was the same story, with only three clubs getting back (Florida Panthers, Minnesota Wild and, once again, the Oilers).
There are too many teams around the league that can win on any given night, which can throw a thick blanket over a momentum-building winning streak. For clubs that find themselves in a big hole in October and November, the chances of closing the gap from December, of putting together a run that launches them back up the standings, look slim.
And yet, 2025-26 has served as a bit of a plot twist. While the Western Conference seems to be following a similar pattern to what we’ve seen in previous years, the East seems to be much more difficult to predict, as most of the conference has been put together with roughly the same numbers. That being the case, let’s take a look at each conference’s playoff bubble on the US Thanksgiving benchmark to get a sense of who might still be in April.
As it stands now, Los Angeles and Utah hold the two wild card spots in the West, with 28 and 27 points, respectively. Behind them, four clubs sit within a handful of points: Chicago, San Jose and Edmonton, all at 25 points; And Winnipeg, one ball behind with 24.
These four bubble clubs find themselves at an interesting moment this season. Chicago and San Jose are finally building toward a season tie, on the back of breakout efforts from young talismans Connor Bedard and Maclin Celebrini. The Oilers, coming off a back-to-back Cup Final appearance, are out of the gates, but are certainly hoping for another big run. And the Jets are similarly navigating a slow start, most recently a Presidents Trophy-winning 2024-25 season.
History suggests that all four are unlikely to make it back into the mix. So, who wins and claws their way up the ladder – the young up-and-comers or the proven vets?
The difficulty of the path ahead has some bearing on how it all stacks up. San Jose, for example, has the most favorable remaining schedule of any club in the league, according to Tankathon, which calculates each club’s strength of schedule by adding up the points percentage of their remaining opponents.
Edmonton isn’t far behind the Sharks in terms of forwards, and Chicago ranks in the middle of the pack. On the other hand, Winnipeg’s remaining schedule is among the toughest of any club in the West.
For the two clubs atop that group, with the pair currently sitting in the wild card slot, the way forward seems to favor Wits. The Kings, who have clinched a playoff spot in each of the last four years and seem like a good bet to be there again, have the most favorable path forward given the strength of their remaining schedule. While Utah, aiming for its first playoff berth in its new city, is among the Western clubs with the toughest schedule to get through.
Rounding out the Western standings, the four basement dwellers — Vancouver (22 points), St. Louis (21), Nashville (19) and Calgary (18) — are looking hard to find a way back. The gap that’s already opened up above them seems enormous, with plenty of talent spread between the clubs and a playoff spot between their paths, and none of those four entered December at a pace that would indicate a surge is coming.
It’s a different story from the East. While four clubs in the West sit in a handful of wild-card spots, in the East, the majority of the conference is still in the mix.
The New York Islanders sit in the first wild card spot with 28 points, while the Pittsburgh Penguins are in second place with 27 points. Behind the Pens, three other clubs sit with 27 points (Montreal Canadiens, Philadelphia Flyers and Detroit Red Wings), two more sitting New York and the Colt Ranger Blues just one point behind. And after that? The two-time Cup champs, on 25 points, are just a pair away from the wild card club.
Jump ahead and, overall, 11 of the 16 teams in the East sit between 25-28 points. A couple of wins here and a couple of losses there can turn the whole thing around. So, which of these clubs currently out there — Montreal, Philadelphia, Detroit, Columbus, Rangers, and Florida — have the best shot at expanding the current setup and returning?
In terms of pure talent and pedigree, Montreal and Florida appear to be the favorites. Injuries have derailed both teams’ seasons — the Cats are living without Aleksandr Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk, while Montreal has gone through injuries of its own. Still, another long run from the Panthers seems inevitable, and the Habs’ young core enters this season with plenty of promise.
Meanwhile, Philly, Detroit and Columbus are all in playoff droughts of varying lengths, but none of them have made it to the dance in the past half-decade. And Rangers, fresh from relegation last season and having changed much of their squad, still look out of sorts in 2025-26.
In terms of the path forward for each of those groups, the Panthers have the most favorable schedule going forward, and one of the most favorable remaining schedules of any Eastern club. The Jackets, Red Wings and Rangers, on the other hand, are all in the league’s top five in terms of the difficulty of their remaining schedules, making their paths even tougher, while Montreal and Philly are both near the middle of the pack.
The Penguins look far from a sure thing when it comes to the wild card race as well. Pittsburgh started the campaign on fire in October, with new head coach Dan Muse, several new faces, and better play from their veterans all pointing to a resurgence for the black and gold. But they’ve come back down to earth somewhat in November, going 3-4-3 through their last 10 games. And looking ahead, while fellow wild-card Islanders have the most favorable remaining paths, the Pens are right around the top of the league in terms of the difficulty of their remaining schedule, so the pressure will continue.
Still, there’s no question who’s under the most scrutiny in December. Toronto and Buffalo rounded out the group as the bottom two clubs in the East. And while the Sabers have missed the playoffs for the past 14 years, the Maple Leafs haven’t been out in a decade — they’ve earned a spot every year since Austin Matthews debuted in blue and white — and they’re coming off a season that saw them finish as division champs, reaching Game 2 of the Round 7.
Maybe this is a sign that they will rally. With how tight the conference has become at this point, the Maple Leafs are second to last in the East but just four points behind Pittsburgh. But given how different the club has looked, and how many quality teams sit between them and a playoff spot, it won’t be an easy climb. Making matters worse: Of all the clubs on the bubble, Toronto has the toughest road ahead, going through Thanksgiving with the third-toughest remaining schedule of any club in the East.
