The wind forecast for the LA fires was weaker than expected, but could pick up on Wednesday

Weather service meteorologists make their forecasts based on a combination of current conditions, historical events and computer weather models. They take all that information and then predict what they think is the most likely outcome. There are always extraordinary conditions, conditions that could happen but are less likely.

Sometimes the storm will be better than the forecast, and sometimes it will be less. In meteorology, both cases are considered “wrong forecasts”. While forecasters predicting a particularly extreme event might be happy if conditions aren’t as bad as they predicted, they know that people will put a little less faith in future warnings if the forecast lags too far.

James Brotherton, a meteorologist with the Los Angeles Weather Service, said he would rather the forecast be wrong if it meant “less pain and suffering.”

Ahead of this cycle of winds, forecasters issued another “particularly hazardous situation” warning from 4 a.m. Tuesday until noon Wednesday, fearing even stronger winds would help fuel existing fires and possibly spark new ones. But by early Tuesday afternoon, winds appeared to be weaker than expected, and the weather service dropped the warning for the rest of the day. The move was temporary and another “particularly dangerous situation” warning will be in place from 3am until 3pm on Wednesday.

Ryan Kittell, another prognosticator in the Los Angeles office, compared it to someone filling out the NCAA draft each March. “Even if you’re the best, at some point you’re not going to have the forecast confirmed as you’d like,” he said.

The “particularly dangerous situation” designation is still a relatively new tool, Mr. Kittell said. The forecast for Tuesday was always right on the line between high and no, and the office decided to use the stronger warning because of the fires that are ongoing across the region, he said.

Robert Clark, a fire behavior analyst for Cal Fire working on the Palisades fire, was relieved Tuesday’s winds weren’t as strong. The fire did not spread overnight, and calmer weather allowed crews to extinguish the fire in pockets of smoldering landscape and vegetation.

Although conditions have improved, Mr. Clark said he is most concerned about the Santa Ana winds forecast to pick up again Tuesday night into Wednesday.

“Then we look to the future to see what happens with the weather forecast with additional Santa Ana winds possible next week,” he said.