Trump’s return has unsettled world leaders. But not India.

Last year, two legal bombshells put India’s relationship with the United States to one of its biggest tests.

As the two sides announced an unprecedented expansion of security and technology ties, US prosecutors accused Indian government agents of plotting to kill an American citizen in the United States.

Months later, the Justice Department filed fraud and corruption charges against India’s most prominent businessman, whose business has soared thanks to the power of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

However, the relationship was maintained. After decades of mutual suspicion between the two countries, said Eric Garcetti, US ambassador to India, the fact that there seems to be no obstacle to their relationship is evidence of his strength.

“I don’t think there is anything significant that will threaten the trajectory of the US-India relationship,” Mr Garcetti said on Saturday in an interview at the embassy in New Delhi, two days before leaving President Biden of the office and Donald J. Trump was sworn in as his successor.

“It is very inevitable and almost inevitable,” Mr. Garcetti added. “It’s the speed and progress that’s inevitable, like the fastest way to get there.”

The Biden administration’s downgrading of ties with India comes after nearly two decades of efforts to avoid Cold War-era tensions that culminated in US sanctions over its nuclear program. in India in 1998.

Washington sees India’s potential as a major power as a geopolitical rival to an ever-increasing China. Already the world’s largest democracy, India is poised to overtake China as the world’s most populous country by 2023. India’s demographic advantages and growing economic technology can help expand global supply chains away from China, which is a priority for the United States and other major powers.

Now comes Mr. Trump’s second presidency, with his first tilt at America and the threat of higher tariffs on trading partners. While leaders in many countries are not surprised, Indian officials insist they are not one of them.

S. Jaishankar, the foreign minister, said India had a “good political relationship with Trump” that he hoped would only deepen. As he attended the opening of the US consulate on Friday in the technology hub of Bengaluru, also known as Bangalore, Mr Jaishankar quoted Mr Modi as saying he had overcome “doubts “the history” of these two countries.

Mr. Modi has enjoyed a strong relationship with Mr. Trump, a major reason for the future president’s approach to international relations in particular. During Mr. Trump’s first term, Mr. Modi hosted him at large rallies in his home state of Gujarat, as well as at a diaspora rally in Texas. Indians — growing influence of Indians in American politics.

But some analysts have warned that Mr. Trump’s unpredictability and negotiating style could be dangerous for India.

Two specific issues will have to test the connection, and likely soon. During the campaign, Mr. Trump criticized India for gaining an unfair advantage in trade by keeping tariffs high. And India could become embroiled in the controversy if Mr. Trump follows through on his promise of mass deportation of illegal immigrants.

Indians are the third largest group of illegal immigrants in the United States, according to the Pew Research Center. If Mr. Trump sends a large number of Indians back home, it could be embarrassing for Mr. Modi.

Amita Batra, a New Delhi-based economist and trade expert, said India should see warning signs in Mr Trump’s threat of higher tariffs, even among its traditional allies. even the American, as well as his willingness to open agreements with countries such as Mexico and Canada. His first administration was put in place.

“You can say that we have a good relationship with Trump, we have an easy relationship with the United States, but how Trump views that at a particular time is a completely different question,” said Dr. Batra during an event at the Center for Social. and Economic Development in New Delhi. “India must be wary of Trump 2.0.”

During the interview, Mr. Garcetti described the relationship between the two countries as “the most compelling, complex and fruitful” for both countries.

A former Democratic mayor of Los Angeles, Mr. Garcetti arrived in New Delhi in April 2023, after the mission had been without an ambassador for two years. His confirmation process has hit a wall amid allegations that he ignored an aide’s sexual harassment complaint while mayor.

He built his time with the same energy and motivation as a politician in a campaign style.

He is everywhere, from the cricket ground to restaurants to cultural programs. Wearing a leather jacket, he even got behind the piano to open for jazz legends Herbie Hancock and Dianne Reeves, who came to perform at the Piano Man Jazz Club in New Delhi..

But when Mr. Garcetti tried his hand at dancing to popular Bollywood tunes at the Diwali celebrations, relations between the two countries hit a major snag.

In India, right-wing trolls seized on the United States’ accusations that the Indian government was involved in a plot to kill an American citizen advocating separatism in India. This, along with the US indictment of businessman Gautam Adani, is proof that the US has tried to minimize India’s inevitable rise, say nationalist voices online.

The Biden administration intended to talk quietly with New Delhi about the killings, demanding accountability but not letting it become a major diplomatic problem.

“On Capitol Hill, inside the White House, I think it’s really a moment of reflection and pause with those who know about it,” Mr. Garcetti said of the assassination case. “It didn’t stop the excitement — you know, the relationship between countries is multifaceted and always together, not just between governments. But I think it’s an immediate gut check. “

Mr. Garcetti said the Biden administration was reassured by India’s response. New Delhi accepted the US request, he said, “not only for accountability but for systemic reforms and making sure that this does not happen again.”

An Indian government inquiry that ended last week recommended legal action against an unnamed person with “past criminal links.” It said the move, which analysts saw as an attempt to start the Trump era on a clean slate, “must be done quickly.”

“If we want to work together in other areas that are important to us, intelligence sharing, etc., trust is the foundation of everything,” Mr. Garcetti said. “But I’m really fascinated by how the trust will learn from the challenge.”

One lingering question in the relationship between the two countries is whether India can really emerge as China’s replacement in global supply chains — something Mr. Garcetti has also wondered.

India has received only a sharp share of the windfall from migration away from China, with companies preferring places like Vietnam, Taiwan and Mexico, which are cheaper. to build jobs and low costs.

Mr. Garcetti said India has made tremendous progress after opening up its economy only in the 1990s, years behind China. He held up his iPhone to demonstrate recent success: About 15 percent of iPhone production now takes place in India, a figure that could grow rapidly, he said.

Overall, however, India is still struggling to attract foreign investment, despite improvements in infrastructure and some tightening of regulations. Manufacturing is not growing fast enough to bring India the jobs it desperately needs.

“With India leaving so much progress, jobs and growth on the table, we are looking for better ways to make it smooth and hassle-free to invest here in exports,” Mr. Garcetti said. “Because it’s still, you know, for many elements of manufacturing, one of, if not the, top economy.”

“They’re not wrong to look at it and say it was 95 percent worse,” Mr. Garcetti said. “But if that 5 percent is twice your competitor or 10 times your competitor — businesses, you know, are like water. They flow where gravity takes them.”