Where Trump’s ‘frenemy’ relationship with Europe goes from here

Financially, northern Europe is certainly doing better than it is today, but, in terms of unity, the continent is deeply divided on the back of the migrant crisis in 2015. The populist eurosceptic party also rose then, after the Brexit vote. in June 2016, there are widespread predictions that the European Union will soon lose another member state and fall apart altogether.

Fast forward to 2025 and the EU is already reeling from Brexit, the Covid pandemic, the migration crisis and Trump’s first term in office – with countries in deep withdrawal following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

This is more than a stumbling, instead of sailing through these subsequent crises, but the EU still stands and the wounds of Brexit, for example, have healed with time.

Post-Brexit UK is seen by the EU as a close ally who shares the same values ​​in a world threatened by an ambitious China, an expansive Russia and unpredictable, bullish US president enters.

Meanwhile, NATO, despite worries about Trump’s commitment to the alliance, has been pushed militarily and geostrategically by Sweden and Russia’s neighbor Finland to become members after the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Maybe, just maybe, Trump will see more of the differences that frustrate and annoy him about Europe this time around.

This is Europe that recognizes the need to spend more on defense, as he demands; It was further from China, as he had hoped, and it was more inclined to his politics, as he had wished.

Is it Europe whose leaders also stand up to Trump, despite threats and nervousness, if they feel he is crossing the line – whether it is about human rights, free speech or dallying with dictators?

The next chapter in the relationship between the transatlantic frenemies is waiting to be written.