Zelensky may face a tough re-election, polls show

Since Russia invaded his country three years ago, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine has survived military attacks on his capital, assassination plots, corruption scandals in his government, the political conflicts and the terrible setbacks in the war of his army against Russia.

He had enough support from Ukrainians to carry him every time.

Now, with Donald J. Trump installed in the White House, Mr. Zelensky faces a new challenge: maintaining good relations with the country’s most important ally and a president who despised him. and hesitated about military aid.

Mr. Trump’s arrival comes at a critical time for Mr. Zelensky at home. The soaring popularity he experienced at the start of the war – with an approval rating of around 90 percent – has waned dramatically. The latest polls show support has dipped to nearly 50 percent, and it’s even lower in a survey that gauges his popularity among potential rivals if elections were held after a ceasefire deal with Russia.

And a new hot spot has emerged for Mr. Zelensky: the resurgence of political opposition in Ukraine, fueled by the prospect of a ceasefire and possible elections soon. The outspoken criticism of Mr. Trump and his aides targeting Mr. Zelensky is also encouraging his opponents.

Two opponents who ran against Mr. Zelensky in Ukraine’s 2019 election — former President Petro O. Poroshenko and former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko — reached out to members of Mr. Trump’s team. Ms. Tymoshenko traveled to Washington to attend some inauguration events on Monday.

Mr. Zelensky did not attend the ceremony. He said he would go to Washington without inviting Mr. Trump.

“He believes in a one-man show, but it doesn’t work,” Oleksiy Goncharenko, a member of Parliament from the opposition European Union party, said of Mr Zelensky’s role as a platform for the Ukrainian opposition after the Russian invasion in 2022. .

Mr. Zelensky has rallied his people and his allies through nightly videotapes and frequent trips abroad. But otherwise he kept himself within a circle of trusted aides, limiting access to celebrities and often ignoring their advice, Mr. Goncharenko said. A more active opposition emerging today will help in the fight, he added.

To be sure, no vote in Ukraine is scheduled — or even possible, election experts say — while the war rages and the country is under martial law. Russia can disrupt any election with a volley of missiles. Millions of Ukrainians, including combat troops, refugees in Europe and people living under occupation, could be deported. So if Ukrainians are fighting for their democracy, they cannot implement it.

However, the opposition did not fail to criticize how the backlash from the war has eroded Mr. Zelensky’s popularity. According to the Constitution, elections must be held after martial law is lifted. Parliament first imposed martial law in February 2022, following a full-scale Russian invasion, and has extended it in periodic votes.

On the other hand, Mr. Zelensky still has the support of a majority of Ukrainians, albeit narrowly: 52 percent still trust the president, according to a poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology in in December.

But polls focused more on the projected presidential election show Mr Zelensky trailing former army chief Valery Zaluzhny, who was removed by the president as part of a sweeping overhaul of the military command and now is Ukraine’s ambassador to Great Britain.

A survey, conducted by the polling agency Leding Legal Initiatives, showed Mr. Zaluzhny winning the first round of the two-stage election with 24 percent of the vote. Mr. Zelensky followed, with 16 percent; and Ms. Tymoshenko, the opposition, was in third place with 12 percent. Neither Mr. Zaluzhny nor Ms. Tymoshenko have announced plans to run.

The decline in support has implications beyond politics for Mr. Zelensky: It could undermine his role as a wartime commander.

“It is not worth elaborating on the potential dangers of delegation and the fall of power,” wrote Anton Hrushetskyi, executive director of the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology. in a survey of declining approval ratings.

That did not stop Mr. Trump and his allies from getting closer to Mr. It’s Zelensky. At a rally in September, for example, Mr. Trump called Zelensky “the greatest dealer in history” for the billions in military aid he received to protect his country.

Speaking to reporters on Monday after the inauguration, however, Mr. Trump offered a positive assessment of Mr. Zelensky’s openness to reconciliation talks and one of his harshest assessments yet. the president of Russia, Vladimir V. Putin, whom he said was “destroying Russia. ” with the war.

Mr. Zelensky and aides have struggled to join Mr. Zelensky’s team. Trump. The Ukrainian president met with Mr Trump in New York in September. Andriy Yermak, the Ukrainian president’s chief of staff, met in December on Capitol Hill with Vice President-elect JD Vance and incoming national security adviser Michael Waltz. who was a congressman from Florida at the time, according to two people familiar with the meeting.

Mr. Zelensky’s aides also looked to curry favor behind the scenes. Kyiv officials have discussed a possible deal to buy the Ukrainian-language rights to Melania Trump’s book, “Melania,” according to a Ukrainian official familiar with the discussion.

It was unclear whether anyone in the group approached Mrs. Trump’s aides or publishers, the official said. He said the talks were no more than a “mental boost” by aide Zelensky to establish good relations with Mr Trump.

On his trip to Washington in December, Mr. Poroshenko spoke with Mr. Waltz appoint a national security adviser. Mr. Poroshenko highlighted the exchange in a Facebook post that promoted his relationship with the Trump team and included a photo of himself with Mr. Waltz.

“I am confident of the new US Administration’s willingness to show leadership in terms of ending Russian aggression and establishing real peace in Ukraine,” he wrote, adding that Mr Trump’s team was “I remember well how we worked with him during my tenure. .”

One person present said Mr. Poroshenko noted the importance of the relationship with Mr. Waltz, which took place in a hallway at a party the two attended rather than a formal meeting. Mr. Poroshenko has denied pursuing any political goals during the war.

Oleksandr Merezhko, chairman of the Ukrainian Parliament’s foreign policy committee and a member of Mr Zelensky’s political party, said it was standard diplomacy for Trump’s team to engage with opposition parties. .

“Ukraine is a democratic society,” he said. “It’s nice to meet the opposition.”

But he said disseminating the opposition was “mostly about self-promotion and political PR.” Mr. Merezhko tried another way to focus Mr. Trump on the war: Last fall, he nominated Mr. Trump for a Nobel Peace Prize.

Mr. Merezhko said he did not believe Mr. Trump harbored a deep hatred for Mr. Zelensky. The “biggest seller” comment, he said, could be read as a compliment.

“In Trump’s world, that’s a compliment,” he said.